Russia won’t attack NATO while Ukraine is ongoing, it’s too risky. Moldova and non NATO members are much more likely.
2.341855
Relative Brier Score
203
Forecasts
6
Upvotes
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Lithuania
Why do you think you're right?
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Why might you be wrong?
If Trump gets elected, Russia may think that this is their chance
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Confirmed previous forecast
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Apr 20, 2024 to Oct 20, 2024
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Apr 20, 2024 to Oct 20, 2024
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Apr 20, 2024 to Oct 20, 2024
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Apr 20, 2024 to Oct 20, 2024
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Apr 20, 2024 to Oct 20, 2024
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Apr 20, 2024 to Oct 20, 2024
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Johnson is putting his career on the line for this. I believe after his speech and Democrats support that this will happen
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Will Iran launch missiles targeting Israel or conduct an airstrike in Israel in the next six months?
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Apr 14, 2024 to Oct 14, 2024
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Apr 14, 2024 to Oct 14, 2024
After the strike on Damascus this is certain
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Moldova is the most likely because of Transnistria. They welcome Russian support and Russia has been open about its aims to annex Transnistria, it all depends on the outcome of the Ukraine war. Armenia is weak and unimportant for Russia, plus it has tensions with Turkey/Azerbaijan. Georgia’s government is pro-Russian so likely won’t be invaded, and Kazakhstan is weak and sparsely populated so Russia will probably use economic coercion over military.