Updating
0.001344
Relative Brier Score
15
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 50 | 15 | 125 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 12 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 17 | 7 | 49 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Apr 14, 2024 02:58PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
4%
(-6%)
Yes
Mar 14, 2024 to Sep 14, 2024
96%
(+6%)
No
Mar 14, 2024 to Sep 14, 2024
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Yes
99%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
Confirming forecast.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
70%
(+10%)
Less than or equal to 49
30%
(-10%)
Between 50 and 99, inclusive
0%
(0%)
Between 100 and 149, inclusive
0%
(0%)
Between 150 and 199, inclusive
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 200
Why do you think you're right?
Updating.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
My update could be wrong.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
62%
Yes
38%
No
Why do you think you're right?
I just feel that over 9 months is a long time for the fighting to continue uninterrupted.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
The 30 days is the part of the criteria that makes me the most skeptical.
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Mar 9, 2024 06:51PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
Yes
Feb 9, 2024 to Mar 9, 2024
99%
No
Feb 9, 2024 to Mar 9, 2024
Why do you think you're right?
I believe there may be minor conflicts as there has always been but nothing that will meet the criteria.
I also think that the conflict in Gaza is another deterrent because Israel is on high alert with all of their forces mobilized and ready to go. The destruction in Gaza is another thing for them to think about, as in, do they want that to happen to them?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Hezbollah has been traditionally unpredictable.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
Confirming.
Files
Updating