As of now, there are 2380 riots and protestes recorded.
0.69017
Relative Brier Score
115
Forecasts
20
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 4 | 36 | 421 | 115 | 899 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 6 |
| Questions Forecasted | 4 | 36 | 84 | 41 | 166 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 1 | 4 | 58 | 20 | 102 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Less than or equal to 749
1%
(-1%)
Between 750 and 1499, inclusive
5%
(-22%)
Between 1500 and 2249, inclusive
88%
(+23%)
Between 2250 and 2999, inclusive
5%
(0%)
More than or equal to 3000
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
61%
Yes
39%
No
Last year, four o-ran certificates were issued therefore, I am being positive for this time as well.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
40%
(+30%)
Yes
Apr 15, 2024 to Oct 15, 2024
60%
(-30%)
No
Apr 15, 2024 to Oct 15, 2024
Israel is set to normalize relations with Indonesia, the largest Muslim-majority country in the world, Ynet reported on Thursday.
The move comes after three months of secret talks between Jerusalem and Jakarta. In exchange for establishing diplomatic ties with the Jewish state, Jerusalem will reportedly lift its opposition to Indonesia becoming the 39th member of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). [1]
[1] https://www.jns.org/indonesia-to-normalize-relations-with-israel-says-report/
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(0%)
Yes
95%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
(0%)
Yes
90%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes, the stockpile will be reduced by 100% to 0 kg
3%
(0%)
No, the stockpile will be reduced by 50% or more (>0 kg - 61.8 kg)
5%
(0%)
No, the stockpile will be reduced by less than 50% (>61.8 kg - 123.6 kg)
92%
(0%)
No, the stockpile will increase (>123.6 kg)
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
80%
(+11%)
Less than or equal to 49
13%
(-4%)
Between 50 and 99, inclusive
4%
(-3%)
Between 100 and 149, inclusive
2%
(-1%)
Between 150 and 199, inclusive
1%
(-3%)
More than or equal to 200
Passage of time
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
80%
(+60%)
Yes
20%
(-60%)
No
It looks like i made a mistake in last forecast. What was meant for yes was input for no. I have corrected the mistake in this forecast.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
11%
(0%)
Yes
Apr 11, 2024 to Oct 11, 2024
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
Still leaning more towards of it not happening