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New Prediction
Will events involving Russian security forces result in 25 or more fatalities occurring on or in the soil, airspace, or territorial waters of a NATO member state before 1 April 2023?
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Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
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New Prediction
This forecast expired on Nov 12, 2022 01:37PM
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Answer
Forecast Window
0%
(0%)
Yes
Oct 12, 2022 to Nov 12, 2022
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
(0%)
Yes
Confirmed previous forecast
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
99%
(0%)
Yes
Confirmed previous forecast
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
Confirmed previous forecast
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New Prediction
This forecast expired on Oct 26, 2022 07:46PM
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Answer
Forecast Window
0%
(0%)
Yes
Sep 26, 2022 to Oct 26, 2022
Confirmed previous forecast
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
99%
Yes
I think the chances of him loosing political power are vanishingly small even given the current Chinese economic environment. I think the only realistic path for him to cease being the General Secretary is if he is incapacitated with a health issue. I don't see much evidence suggesting that will happen within this time frame.
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
(-3%)
Yes
Updating for the passage of time
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