Affirming.
Health appears good. Opposition has been killed or imprisoned. He isn't going anywhere soon.
-0.100501
Relative Brier Score
164
Forecasts
125
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 12 | 36 | 750 | 164 | 1928 |
| Comments | 1 | 9 | 162 | 34 | 761 |
| Questions Forecasted | 11 | 15 | 45 | 17 | 82 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 4 | 42 | 537 | 125 | 1447 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
2023 Q2
0%
(0%)
2023 Q3
0%
(0%)
2023 Q4
0%
(0%)
2024 Q1
0%
(0%)
2024 Q2
Affirming. I followed up to investigate if any equipment was damaged from the earthquake that might affect this question. But it does not appear so.
https://www.digitimes.com/news/a20240403PD208/taiwan-earthquake-tsmc-ic-manufacturing.html
FTA: TSMC emphasized that it has extensive experience and capabilities in earthquake response and disaster prevention, and conducts regular safety drills to ensure preparedness.
Although a few pieces of equipment were damaged in some areas of the fab, affecting some production lines, the most important machines, including all extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography equipment, were not damaged.
TSMC is in close communication with its customers and will continue to monitor the impact of the damage and communicate directly with them in a timely manner.
Although manufacturing processes below 7nm EUV are expensive, TSMC has comprehensively strengthened earthquake protection since 1999. Analysts said the loss brought by the earthquake on April 3, after deducting the insurance compensations, is estimated at less than NT$2 billion, or around US$62 million.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
Affirming. I find nothing in the news to suggest large protests in the next 2 weeks.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
100%
(0%)
No
Up a bit at 285, but not enough to signal anything IMHO.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
100%
(0%)
No
I continue to believe Xi is trying for a velvet takeover.
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/politics/article/3258916/ma-ying-jeous-mainland-china-trip-shows-hes-beijings-best-hope-win-taiwanese-hearts-and-minds
FTA:
When Taiwan’s former leader Ma Ying-jeou was received by mainland Chinese President Xi Jinping on Wednesday, he was referred to simply as “Mister Ma” as Beijing walked the tight rope between offering hospitality while refraining from endorsing the island’s government.
Yet he is much more than a “mister” to Beijing. Ma, the first former or sitting Taiwanese president to be received by mainland China’s leader, remains Beijing’s top choice to help it win Taiwanese hearts and minds.
Though Ma’s party, the Kuomintang, has lost three consecutive presidential elections, he still carries weight within the island’s opposition camp, which is typically friendlier towards mainland China than the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP).
“Even though our political systems and perspectives may differ from those of the mainland, we are all descendants of the Yellow Emperor, belonging to the same Chinese nation,” Ma said upon returning to Taiwan on Thursday, wrapping up a trip he dubbed a “journey of peace”.
“I also hope that the young people of Taiwan can set aside ideological differences and recognise the historical and cultural connections between Taiwan and the mainland, which cannot be severed by politics.”
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
4%
(-1%)
Yes
Apr 14, 2024 to May 14, 2024
96%
(+1%)
No
Apr 14, 2024 to May 14, 2024
Iraq closed its airspace to Iran, but has since reopened. My guess is this slows down diplomatic overtures for a bit.
Files
New Prediction
Will Iran launch missiles targeting Israel or conduct an airstrike in Israel in the next six months?
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
100%
(+90%)
Yes
Apr 13, 2024 to Oct 13, 2024
0%
(-90%)
No
Apr 13, 2024 to Oct 13, 2024
Oops, I dropped too early.
Files
New Prediction
Will Iran launch missiles targeting Israel or conduct an airstrike in Israel in the next six months?
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
10%
(-30%)
Yes
Apr 13, 2024 to Oct 13, 2024
90%
(+30%)
No
Apr 13, 2024 to Oct 13, 2024
Comment deleted on Apr 13, 2024 09:28PM UTC
Files
New Prediction
Will Iran launch missiles targeting Israel or conduct an airstrike in Israel in the next six months?
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
40%
(+30%)
Yes
Apr 6, 2024 to Oct 6, 2024
60%
(-30%)
No
Apr 6, 2024 to Oct 6, 2024
Moving a bit higher for a week or two on latest news I'm reading. Not moving higher because it is not clear to me that "drones" will count. And Iran striking targets outside Israel would not count.
https://www.timesofisrael.com/iran-said-to-decide-on-direct-response-to-syria-strike-put-forces-on-full-alert/
fta:
Iran has reportedly put its military forces on “full high alert,” as it vows revenge for an alleged Israeli strike on Monday that killed a top Iranian commander in Syria and several other Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps members.
Two Iranian officials quoted Friday by The New York Times said Iran has made a decision to directly attack Israel, in a move meant to create deterrence.
Meanwhile, a US official said the United States was on high alert and preparing for a possible attack by Iran targeting Israeli or American assets in the region.
And...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3AEk_nRF0V4&ab_channel=CBSEveningNews
Files
it is not clear to me that "drones" will count
We now have a clarification that they will, following an implicit request of mine 😉
Files
Affirming based on reports of newly installed equipment that increases enrichment output.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2024/04/10/iran-nuclear-bomb-iaea-fordow/
FTA:
The inspectors’ latest trek, in February, yielded the usual matrices of readings and measurements, couched in the clinical language of a U.N. nuclear watchdog report. But within the document’s dry prose were indications of alarming change.
In factory chambers that had ceased making enriched uranium under a 2015 nuclear accord, the inspectors now witnessed frenzied activity: newly installed equipment, producing enriched uranium at ever-faster speeds, and an expansion underway that could soon double the plant’s output.
...
Iran recently has sought to dilute some of its highly enriched uranium, signaling, in the view of U.S. officials, that it is seeking to avoid a conflict by self-imposing limits on its supply of near-weapons-grade fuel. But Fordow’s machines are making highly enriched uranium at a faster rate than ever before, and the country’s combined stocks of uranium fuel continue to increase, records show. The trend is unmistakable: From interviews with International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) officials at the nuclear watchdog’s Vienna headquarters and with more than a dozen current and former U.S. and European intelligence and security officials — many of whom spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive matters — the emerging view is one of Iran advancing slowly but confidently, accumulating the means for a future weapon while making no overt move to build one.