Confirmed previous forecast
0.847353
Relative Brier Score
12
Forecasts
1
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 294 | 12 | 604 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 79 | 1 | 198 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 72 | 12 | 119 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 47 | 1 | 60 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
Will any of the following countries recognize Israel’s statehood by 31 December 2024?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Kuwait
0%
(0%)
Oman
0%
(0%)
Qatar
0%
(0%)
Saudi Arabia
0%
(0%)
Tunisia
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes, the stockpile will be reduced by 100% to 0 kg
0%
(0%)
No, the stockpile will be reduced by 50% or more (>0 kg - 61.8 kg)
0%
(0%)
No, the stockpile will be reduced by less than 50% (>61.8 kg - 123.6 kg)
100%
(0%)
No, the stockpile will increase (>123.6 kg)
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(0%)
Yes
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(-8%)
Yes
98%
(+8%)
No
Social media is too important a source and Leica only recently launched the first C2PA camera https://contentauthenticity.org/blog/leica-launches-worlds-first-camera-with-content-credentials
Open source has other ways of authenticating photos and videos as Bellingcat have shown
Files
There have been some recent hints that provenance could be brought forward initially without necessarily starting at the lens: https://www.infer-pub.com/comments/114653
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
62%
(+4%)
Less than or equal to 499
31%
(-4%)
Between 500 and 999, inclusive
6%
(0%)
Between 1000 and 1499, inclusive
1%
(0%)
Between 1500 and 1999, inclusive
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 2000
The prospective invasion of Guyana seems to have focused minds elsewhere
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
(0%)
Yes
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
15%
(0%)
Yes
85%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
4%
(0%)
Yes
96%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(0%)
Yes
98%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files