Confirmed previous forecast
0.038892
Relative Brier Score
180
Forecasts
11
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Forecasts | 10 | 41 | 883 | 180 | 2107 |
Comments | 0 | 0 | 29 | 5 | 138 |
Questions Forecasted | 10 | 20 | 59 | 22 | 131 |
Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 3 | 99 | 11 | 183 |
Definitions |
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
2%
(0%)
Yes
Mar 25, 2024 to Sep 25, 2024
98%
(0%)
No
Mar 25, 2024 to Sep 25, 2024
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
(0%)
Yes
Mar 25, 2024 to Sep 25, 2024
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Will Iran launch missiles targeting Israel or conduct an airstrike in Israel in the next six months?
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
(0%)
Yes
Mar 25, 2024 to Sep 25, 2024
99%
(0%)
No
Mar 25, 2024 to Sep 25, 2024
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
4%
(0%)
Yes
96%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
5%
(0%)
Yes
Mar 25, 2024 to Sep 25, 2024
95%
(0%)
No
Mar 25, 2024 to Sep 25, 2024
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
85%
(+10%)
Less than or equal to 49
15%
(-10%)
Between 50 and 99, inclusive
0%
(0%)
Between 100 and 149, inclusive
0%
(0%)
Between 150 and 199, inclusive
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 200
No new numbers
Files
Bin 3 is possible