15th
Accuracy Rank

MCowley

About:

West Australian Engineer and former publican.

2nd of 7035 - In the News 2021 (GJO)
20th of 1654 - China and the World in 2021 (GJO)
5th of 2248 - Think Again with Adam Grant (GJO 2021)
5th of 1839 - Economist The World in 2021 (GJO)
1st of 35 - Karios Covid-19 Forecasting Tournament (2020)
15th percentile - GJO Project 2.0 Covid-19 forecasting Study (2020)
18th of 3351 - Economist World in 2020 (GJO)
40th of 8231- In the News 2020 (GJO)
55th of 4851 - Global Judgement Challenge 2020
1st of ~300 - Prescience 2019 Season

(Occasionally go by Moglj)

GJO: https://www.gjopen.com/memberships/34959

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2024 Season Stats

-0.068278

Relative Brier Score

57

Forecasts

1

Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
 
Past Week Past Month Past Year This Season All Time
Forecasts 4 18 254 57 546
Comments 0 0 8 3 35
Questions Forecasted 4 15 47 20 79
Upvotes on Comments By This User 0 0 11 1 40
 Definitions
New Prediction
From 1 June 2023 to 31 May 2024, how many protests and riots will ACLED record in Colombia?
MCowley made their 3rd forecast (view all):
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
0% (0%)
Less than or equal to 749
0% (0%)
Between 750 and 1499, inclusive
10% (-2%)
Between 1500 and 2249, inclusive
85% (+3%)
Between 2250 and 2999, inclusive
5% (-1%)
More than or equal to 3000

Update for time

Files
New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction

Update for time remaining, no change to original rationale 

Files
New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
For each of the 5 quarters listed, what is the probability that North America’s share of TSMC’s net revenue will be less than 40%?
MCowley made their 2nd forecast (view all):
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
0% (0%)
2023 Q2
0% (0%)
2023 Q3
1% (0%)
2023 Q4
1% (0%)
2024 Q1
1% (0%)
2024 Q2
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Will any of the following countries recognize Israel’s statehood by 31 December 2024?
MCowley made their 1st forecast (view all):
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
1%
Kuwait
1%
Oman
1%
Qatar
1%
Saudi Arabia
1%
Tunisia

Low count on all fronts

Files
New Prediction
From 1 June 2023 to 31 May 2024, how many fatalities due to gang violence will ACLED record in El Salvador?
MCowley made their 2nd forecast (view all):
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
76% (+15%)
Less than or equal to 49
23% (-10%)
Between 50 and 99, inclusive
1% (-2%)
Between 100 and 149, inclusive
0% (-2%)
Between 150 and 199, inclusive
0% (-1%)
More than or equal to 200

Update for time 

Files
New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Badge
MCowley earned a new badge:

Active Forecaster

New Prediction
From 1 June 2023 to 31 May 2024, how many battles and incidents of violence against civilians will ACLED record in Venezuela?
MCowley made their 2nd forecast (view all):
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
90% (0%)
Less than or equal to 499
9% (0%)
Between 500 and 999, inclusive
1% (0%)
Between 1000 and 1499, inclusive
0% (0%)
Between 1500 and 1999, inclusive
0% (0%)
More than or equal to 2000
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
Files
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