ctsats

Following @PeterStamp and adjusting like @ScottEastman 

Low bar and long time for an issue that it is not clear if there is real interest.

Back in March 4, I sent an email to the head of the HWC, Prof. Abel Méndez, asking for some clarifications (and since I did so, I could not resist asking for his opinion about the number of expected additions); it took some time, but he has just replied (my questions in numbered text, emphasis at the end mine):

Hi Christos, sorry for the late replay but here are the answers to your questions. Thanks for the interest. Best, -Abel.

1.     I have noticed that the 2 worlds added to the lists in the last update (Feb 1) were exoplanets confirmed in 2023 (namely TOI-715 b and GJ 367 d). Should we expect that new entries in 2024, if any, will be only such new exoplanets, confirmed in 2023-2024? Or it could be the case that new measurements about older discoveries could allow an exoplanet confirmed in previous years (2022 or before) to be added to the lists in 2024?

Planets not included in the previous updates are marked as new, usually within the last year. It’s is possible that a planet from 2022 or earlier is added to the catalog if that planet was initially unconfirmed and now is confirmed.

2.     Should we expect the lists to be updated regularly (e.g. monthly or so) even if there are no new additions? Or only when new entries are added to the lists?

The catalog is updated irregularly as new results are available. Some updates are only on the data analysis and not necessarily on new planets. For example, we plan to update in late May the mass-radius relationship model based on this paper.

3.     What is the primary bottleneck in the process of enriching the lists? Lack of exoplanets with adequate/accurate data to decide potential habitability, limited people & resources in the project, or possibly both?

Although exoplanets are discovered every week, those potentially habitable worlds are taking months. The catalog is very automate today. I just type “hwc” in an IDL prompt and it downloads and analyze all current data. If there is something interesting, then the web is also updated.

4.     On a predictive/speculative basis, do you expect that we will have at least 5 new additions to the lists in 2024, as it seems to be the case for 2022 and 2023, or not?

New detections strongly depend on new missions, and after Kepler, were are in slow time. Of course, TESS is helping as the ground observatories. I guess 5 to 10 new additions this year.

Passage of time.

Common sense would ask for a high probability of Yes here; after all, we had an important joint announcement by AT&T and Ericsson last December:

AT&T* today announced plans to lead the United States in commercial scale open radio access network (Open RAN) deployment [...] in collaboration with Ericsson. [...] AT&T’s spend could approach roughly $14 billion over the 5-year term of the contract with Ericsson.

AT&T’s Open RAN plan is for 70% of its wireless network traffic to flow across open-capable platforms by late 2026. The company expects to have fully integrated open RAN sites operating in coordination with Ericsson and Fujitsu, starting in 2024. [...]  Beginning in 2025, the company will scale this Open RAN environment throughout its wireless network in coordination with multiple suppliers such as Corning Incorporated, Dell Technologies, Ericsson, Fujitsu, and Intel.

The funding of the relevant ACCoRD project with 42M USD from the federal government was also announced on Feb 2024.

Thing is, digging a little, one finds out that in the same month with the AT&T & Ericsson announcement (Dec 2023), Europe's first Open RAN went fully functional throughout Germany (source), without any single certificate having been issued by any European OTIC until then (the very first one by any European OTIC was issued a few days ago, on April 4).

Truth is, it is not at al clear what exactly an O-RAN certificate entails, or why exactly it is necessary. Apart from what has been said so far, we should notice that, from the 8 North American OTICs, at least 2 of them (POWDER and UNH-IOL) may not be currently offering certification services, while a 3rd one (AERPAW) plans to start doing so only from May 15 onward.

All in all, this seems to me highly uncertain, so I would not deviate much from a 50/50 chance for the moment.

The Iranians have said they are not willing to escalate from their part (and I believe them).

The US have said they will not support offensive actions against Iran (and I believe them, too).

Increasing marginally, but still I see it as highly unlikely.

Reducing after the latest events...