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Relative Brier Score
46
Forecasts
7
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Forecasts | 3 | 21 | 164 | 46 | 274 |
Comments | 0 | 0 | 34 | 2 | 96 |
Questions Forecasted | 3 | 17 | 35 | 17 | 48 |
Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 4 | 22 | 7 | 36 |
Definitions |
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(-9%)
Yes
100%
(+9%)
No
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(-2%)
Yes
Putin's health appeared very good in his election victory speech.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
66%
(+26%)
Yes
34%
(-26%)
No
Updated based on work clearly backlog of previously identified planets noted by multiple forecasters.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
70%
(-16%)
Less than $90
30%
(+16%)
More than or equal to $90 but less than $100
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to $100 but less than $110
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to $110 but less than $120
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to $120
Gas prices are volatile enough to move $5.00/barrel in two weeks. With spring arriving in many parts of country demand is starting to rise and prices at the pump have increased over the past 2 weeks.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
51%
(0%)
Yes
49%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
(0%)
Yes
90%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
86%
(+6%)
Less than $90
14%
(-6%)
More than or equal to $90 but less than $100
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to $100 but less than $110
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to $110 but less than $120
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to $120
Adjusting for time remaining
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
48%
(0%)
Yes
52%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
4%
(0%)
S-400 or S-500 missile system
10%
(0%)
Su-35 fighter jets
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
Adjusting for time remaining