Still seems unlikely that they're planning to directly hit US targets. Howeer, moving up given the current escaled situation.
-0.048514
Relative Brier Score
132
Forecasts
5
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 11 | 37 | 414 | 132 | 637 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 19 |
| Questions Forecasted | 11 | 13 | 33 | 16 | 76 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 1 | 22 | 5 | 69 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
4%
(+2%)
Yes
Apr 20, 2024 to Oct 20, 2024
96%
(-2%)
No
Apr 20, 2024 to Oct 20, 2024
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
9%
(+4%)
Yes
Apr 20, 2024 to Oct 20, 2024
91%
(-4%)
No
Apr 20, 2024 to Oct 20, 2024
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
80%
(0%)
Yes
20%
(0%)
No
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(0%)
Yes
98%
(0%)
No
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
(0%)
Yes
Apr 20, 2024 to Oct 20, 2024
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
6%
(0%)
Yes
94%
(0%)
No
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
5%
(+5%)
Yes
Apr 20, 2024 to Oct 20, 2024
95%
(-5%)
No
Apr 20, 2024 to Oct 20, 2024
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes, the stockpile will be reduced by 100% to 0 kg
1%
(0%)
No, the stockpile will be reduced by 50% or more (>0 kg - 61.8 kg)
3%
(0%)
No, the stockpile will be reduced by less than 50% (>61.8 kg - 123.6 kg)
96%
(0%)
No, the stockpile will increase (>123.6 kg)
Moving up based on the escaled situation.