This now seems safe, as acceleration is baked in from the high rates in recent months and from typical dynamics of hyperinflation. Their economic problems are extreme. No reserves left.
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New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
96%
(+11%)
Yes
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
4%
(0%)
Yes
Affirming
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
(0%)
Yes
Affirming
Files
New Prediction
In collaboration with the UK Professional Head of Intelligence Assessment
Probability
Answer
2%
(0%)
Yes
Affirming
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(-1%)
Yes
Passage of time.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
22%
(-2%)
Less than 6,000
71%
(+7%)
Between 6,000 and 6,999, inclusive
4%
(-3%)
Between 7,000 and 7,999, inclusive
2%
(-1%)
Between 8,000 and 8,999, inclusive
1%
(-1%)
More than or equal to 9,000
Affirming, even though the crowd trends lower. Just trimming the tails a bit. Amlo doesn't seem to place a high priority on violence reduction (or he's simply inept?)
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
61%
(-22%)
Yes
Why do you think you're right?
Here, too, the crowd is indecisevely trending lower due to good news in the first four months. Threshold still low but peace is the default. Also, it's always been hard to track fatalities in jungly DRC.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
1-2 massacres can quickly tip the scales.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
15%
(-13%)
Yes
Crowd cooling off, I agree. Focus of the warriors is on Sudan now.
Files
Why do you think you're right?
The base rate is pretty low; the last two attacks were Stuxnet and Natanz, and Stuxnet wasn't attributed as a deliberate attack until a while later. I would say there is one every 3-4 years so the base rate would hover around 12%.
Since Iran has recently being increasing their nuclear efforts, and the pesky liberal opposition is now sadly massacred, and Khamenei seems healthy and surrounded by hardliners, I would kink that up to 15%
Why might you be wrong?