Given the actions of Israel's allies againt Yemen, it's highly unlikely that Hezbollah will join the conflict with no short term goal.
0.04417
Relative Brier Score
2
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
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| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Mar 1, 2024 01:01AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
Yes
Feb 1, 2024 to Mar 1, 2024
99%
No
Feb 1, 2024 to Mar 1, 2024
Files
New Prediction
In collaboration with the UK Professional Head of Intelligence Assessment
When will ExxonMobil next positively mention algae-based biofuels in its quarterly financial report?
Probability
Answer
0%
In 3Q 2022 or 4Q 2022
0%
In 1Q 2023 or 2Q 2023
0%
In 3Q 2023 or 4Q 2023
100%
Not before 1Q 2024
They haven't shared it so far. If they were to share it this year, there would already be mention of it in the media.
Files
New Prediction
In collaboration with the UK Professional Head of Intelligence Assessment
Probability
Answer
0%
(-100%)
Yes
There's no working Quantum Computer with these kinds of capabilities at the moment.
Files
New Prediction
In collaboration with the UK Professional Head of Intelligence Assessment
Probability
Answer
100%
Yes
There are still no working Quantum Computers with these kinds of capabilities. Maybe next year.
Files
New Prediction
In collaboration with the UK Professional Head of Intelligence Assessment
Probability
Answer
0%
Less than 5%
0%
More than or equal to 5% but less than 6%
100%
More than or equal to 6%
Production has increased since last year, and it was already at 5.7%.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(-75%)
Yes
No time left
Files
The Houthis have continued attacking ships crossing the region even with western counter attacks.
A ceasefire also seems unlikely due to Israel's current discourse.