Considering the international retaliation on Russia after the invasion of Ukraine and the consequent negative impact on the market, specially regarding and energy security , I believe there's a small chance of China trying to take on any Taiwanese island. China is very dependent on the importation of agricultural goods and other relevant products for food industry, therefore, the risk of suffering any international retaliation in this matter would be a great risk to take. Even though this affirmative may not be fully applied to energy security, since China is somewhat independent when it comes to charcoal energy, economical measures could be a hard hit to the county's population.
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5%
Yes
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Probability
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2%
Less than or equal to 5
28%
Between 6 and 7, inclusive
70%
More than or equal to 8
There's a great possibility China will have a high number of universities listed in QS World University ranking because from 2020 to 2021 there was a huge increase in comparison to 2019 to 2020. This might demonstrate a tendency of more Chinese universities being recognized in the ranking.
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Why do you think you're right?
I believe there is a considerable possibility of Bolsonaro contesting the results of 2022 presidential elections, since he has been constructing a very oppositive speech on the Rule of Law, eletronic votes and the power of the Supreme Court and the Electoral Superior Court. Even though he has made many allegations against the eletronic voting system through the years, political tensions are higher at the moment due to the eligibility of former president Luis Inacio Lula da Silva, in a way that there may be more formal confrontations regarding the results.
Why might you be wrong?
There is a chance Bolsonaro would not contest the elections in case he motivated other forms of contestations, such as social or political.