Maximize the team forecast, why not?
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New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
United States
100%
EU
0%
China
0%
United Kingdom
0%
None of the above
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New Prediction
How many European Union countries will have an AI skill migration greater than 2 per 10,000 in 2022?
Probability
Answer
0%
(-80%)
Less than 3
17%
(-3%)
Between 3 and 5, inclusive
67%
(+67%)
Between 6 and 7, inclusive
16%
(+16%)
Between 8 and 10, inclusive
0%
(0%)
More than 10
Revised calc for base rate after re-reading question
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New Prediction
How many European Union countries will have an AI skill migration greater than 2 per 10,000 in 2022?
Probability
Answer
80%
Less than 3
20%
Between 3 and 5, inclusive
0%
Between 6 and 7, inclusive
0%
Between 8 and 10, inclusive
0%
More than 10
Base rate, my copy of @MullenAustin 's sheet with some bucketing.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Before 1 April 2022
100%
(0%)
Between 1 April 2022 and 30 April 2022, inclusive
0%
(0%)
Between 1 May 2022 and 31 May 2022, inclusive
0%
(0%)
Not before 1 June 2022
It's done.
USDRUB:CUR
Russian Ruble SPOT (TOM)
73.5111RUB-0.2584-0.35%
AS OF 06:16 PM EDT 04/27/2022 EDT
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
(+5%)
Yes, 25+ in Georgia, but not in Moldova
10%
(-5%)
Yes, 25+ in Moldova, but not in Georgia
30%
(+25%)
Yes, 25+ in Georgia and 25+ in Moldova
50%
(-25%)
No, 25+ in neither Georgia nor Moldova
If it happens in one country it will probably happen in both. Chances are up that it will happen.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Before 1 April 2022
100%
(+7%)
Between 1 April 2022 and 30 April 2022, inclusive
0%
(-7%)
Between 1 May 2022 and 31 May 2022, inclusive
0%
(0%)
Not before 1 June 2022
Crushing it today at 73. Why I don't know. Vote here if you have a clue: https://www.linkedin.com/posts/larswe_activity-6925046289848045568-eBqq?utm_source=linkedin_share&utm_medium=member_desktop_web
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
64%
(+29%)
Less than 200
36%
(-8%)
More than or equal to 200 but less than 400
0%
(-15%)
More than or equal to 400 but less than 600
0%
(-3%)
More than or equal to 600 but less than 800
0%
(-2%)
More than or equal to 800 but less than 1000
0%
(-1%)
More than or equal to 1000
Per @MullenAustin
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Before 1 April 2022
93%
(+36%)
Between 1 April 2022 and 30 April 2022, inclusive
7%
(-22%)
Between 1 May 2022 and 31 May 2022, inclusive
0%
(-14%)
Not before 1 June 2022
Depends on the close.
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Minimize team forecast