The Rolexgate didn't result in a transition, and even if it had, it would've been a regular one.
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| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 18 | 50 | 345 | 98 | 634 |
| Comments | 3 | 12 | 37 | 17 | 58 |
| Questions Forecasted | 14 | 32 | 72 | 36 | 111 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 6 | 22 | 82 | 40 | 116 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
Confirming
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
60%
(+57%)
S-400 or S-500 missile system
70%
(+62%)
Su-35 fighter jets
The recent Washington Post report based on several leaked documents says that Russia has promised to provide Iran with Su-35 fighter jets and S-400 missile system. This is a significant turn, and we should update our forecasts accordingly.
However, the report does not say that the transaction has been occurred yet. It also states that Iran and Russia are working in secrecy, so if weapons systems are provided, we might not know of it.
The recent attack by Iran to Israel makes it more likely that Iran is indeed pursuing the above weapons systems in order to defend itself against Israel.
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(-1%)
Yes
95%
(+1%)
No
Adjusting further towards the crowd
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
4%
(-1%)
Yes
96%
(+1%)
No
Adjusting down based on passage of time
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
18%
(+3%)
Yes
Apr 17, 2024 to Apr 17, 2025
82%
(-3%)
No
Apr 17, 2024 to Apr 17, 2025
Updating based on the escalated situation
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
13%
(+3%)
Yes
Apr 17, 2024 to Oct 17, 2024
87%
(-3%)
No
Apr 17, 2024 to Oct 17, 2024
Updating based on the escalated situation.
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
9%
(+5%)
Yes
Apr 17, 2024 to Oct 17, 2024
91%
(-5%)
No
Apr 17, 2024 to Oct 17, 2024
Moving up based on the escalated situation. I'm expecting Israel to keep their vessels out of the reach of Houthis though.
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
22%
(+10%)
Yes
Apr 17, 2024 to Oct 17, 2024
Moving up based on the suspected attack by Iran to Israel actually happening.
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Why do you think you're right?
I'll use @ctsats 's base rate of 73% for now, although I know it's problematic. I'll need to think about the base rate more later.
Knowing that there were much more observations in early 2010s due to Kepler telescope, I'm updating my forecast down, maybe to 65%. James Webb hasn't been finding many exoplanets.
I also believe the way the question is constructed, some habitable worlds found in 2024 are likely to not count for this question. The clarification states that the question will be resolved on or after 31 January 2025, without specifying the date. Since some of the previous findings have taken several months to be added to the list, some of the findings in late 2024 are likely to be missed when the question is resolved.
So I'm moving down to 60%.
The crowd seems to be at 79%, so I'll move up a bit, back to 65%.
Co-forecasted with @Benjamin-Sturgeon , it was fun!
Why might you be wrong?
I'm not weighing the forecast by the professor @ctsats emailed as strongly as others. IMO we shouldn't update much based on one expert's forecast. I'd be interested to hear why people weigh this one person's forecast so much. Maybe it's about disagreements in interpreting how many exoplanets added to the list this year are going to be counted for 2024? (This was already mentioned by @michal_dubrawski )