Confirming
-0.036966
Relative Brier Score
0
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Calendar
Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Forecasts | 6 | 15 | 322 | 57 | 593 |
Comments | 1 | 4 | 27 | 7 | 48 |
Questions Forecasted | 6 | 14 | 65 | 29 | 104 |
Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 7 | 67 | 18 | 94 |
Definitions |
Confirming.
If something surprising/revolutionary happened, it would've happened around the election. Now there doesn't seem anything significant that would lead to this being resolved positively.
I don't have a good framework/intuition for assessing the probability of this, so I'm just adjusting towards the crowd for now.
Confirming
No new fatalities in the recent months, so it seems more and more likely there are going to be less than 50 fatalities in total
Dropping based on @DKC forecast https://www.infer-pub.com/comments/119532
Adjusting due to longer time without president -> smaller chance a president is chosen soon.
There's of course another force in play, which is: longer time without a president -> higher pressure for finding a president.
However, for now I guess the former force trumps the latter.
Fake news äh
Let's start with a shoddy outside view: While Iran is often involved in conficts indirectly, The Islamic Republic of Iran hasn't been in wars directly since the Iran-Iraq war in 1980-1988. By Laplace's rule, this would give around 20% yearly probability of being in a war. Since it's been so long since the last war, let's divide it by 4 and we end up with a 5%/year. I'm feeling very unsure by what factor I should divide, resulting in a shoddy base rate analysis.
Right now, by far the most probable cause of Iran going to a war is because of the Israel-Gaza war. However, the current regime doesn't seem to want war, and I don't think Israel has capabilities/will to attack Iran directly right now. Also, the relationship between Iran and Israel has always been bad, without it escalating to a full-blown war.
More reasons to why a war is unlikely:
The above considerations make me think the probability of war is currently slightly less than the base rate, let's say 3%.