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116th
Accuracy Rank
efosong
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Questions
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Seasons
2020 Season
2021 Season
2022 Season
2023 Season
2024 Season
Artificial Intelligence
China Politics, Relations, and Technology
Formerly on Foretell
Global AI Race: Talent, Research, and Tech
How Will the U.S. Technology Sector Develop in the Coming Years?
Immigration
Industry
INFER x Cosmic Bazaar Collaboration
International Diplomacy & Conflict
Iran: Threats & Influence
Issue Campaign: U.S. Department of Defense - Silicon Valley Relationship
Microelectronic Technologies
Public Attitudes
Research
Russia-Ukraine War
Science & Technology
Synthetic Biology in the Energy Sector
The Water Cooler
U.S.-China
Decoding Disinformation
EA College Tournament
Future Bowl
Government Investment
Iran Nuclear Program
Iran-VNSAs
Manufacturing
metric-question
Microelectronics
Mission: AI Advancement
Mission: Diplomacy
Quantum Computing
semiconductors
Semiconductor Supply Chain
U.S. tech sector
Date Ended
Question
Relative Brier Score
Mar 18, 2024 04:00PM UTC
Will Houthi rebels launch a missile that strikes within Israel in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Nov 15, 2023 and Mar 18, 2024)
0.046468
Mar 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
Will Ali Khamenei flee Iran or cease to be Supreme Leader before 1 March 2024?
0.000775
Feb 02, 2024 10:00PM UTC
When will ExxonMobil next positively mention algae-based biofuels in its quarterly financial report?
0.019876
Feb 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
Will the Center for Strategic and International Studies record a “significant cyber incident” involving quantum computing in 2023?
-0.00024
Jan 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
Will OpenAI release a fifth generation of its generative pre-trained transformer model (GPT-5) to the general public in 2023?
-0.000325
Jan 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
Will YouTube, Facebook, Instagram, or Twitter enable digital provenance (e.g., C2PA) on photos or videos in 2023?
-0.032617
Nov 18, 2023 05:00PM UTC
Will Google’s Quantum AI lab publish 20 or more publications in 2023?
0.326415
Nov 01, 2023 04:01AM UTC
Will a country ban or take regulatory actions that ultimately block access to OpenAI's models, between 1 June 2023 and 31 October 2023, inclusive?
-0.008797
Sep 12, 2023 09:00PM UTC
Will a new song with AI-generated vocals be streamed over 10 million times on Spotify before 1 June 2024?
0.007542
Sep 10, 2023 04:00PM UTC
Will Egypt’s urban inflation rate be greater than or equal to 40% for any month between March and August 2023, inclusive?
-0.100941
Sep 01, 2023 04:01AM UTC
Will an AI-generated film or episode be released by Netflix, Hulu, Disney+, Max, Apple TV+, or Amazon Prime before 1 September 2023?
-0.000204
Sep 01, 2023 04:00AM UTC
Will a top U.S. chemical or oil and gas company join the BOTTLE consortium as an industry partner by 31 August 2023?
0.045339
Sep 01, 2023 04:00AM UTC
How many teams from the United States will compete in the 2023 iGEM Grand Jamboree?
-0.043115
Aug 21, 2023 04:00AM UTC
From 1 August 2022 to 31 July 2023, will 200 or more fatalities be attributed to one or more non-state armed groups with Salafi jihadi ideology in the North Central and North West zones of Nigeria?
0.002922
Aug 14, 2023 04:00AM UTC
From 1 August 2022 to 31 July 2023, will ACLED record 1000 or more fatalities from conflicts or political violence in Kenya?
0.002912
Jul 02, 2023 04:00AM UTC
How many “venture capital members” will be part of BioMADE at the end of June 2023?
-0.017344
Apr 17, 2023 04:00PM UTC
How will the U.S. rank in AI skills penetration in 2022?
0.016882
Apr 17, 2023 04:00AM UTC
From 1 April 2022 to 1 April 2023, what will be the highest number of ACLED recorded protests/riots in a single calendar month in Russia?
0.001854
Apr 01, 2023 04:01AM UTC
Before 1 April 2023, will the government of the Republic of Srpska declare secession from Bosnia-Herzegovina (BiH), establish a timeline for secession, or schedule a referendum on secession?
0.001446
Apr 01, 2023 04:00AM UTC
Will SpaceX launch Starship into orbit before 1 April 2023?
-0.001409
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