Not happening
0.082191
Relative Brier Score
3
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 13 | 3 | 275 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 22 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 10 | 3 | 72 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(-12%)
Yes
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Mar 15, 2024 10:54PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
(0%)
Yes
Feb 15, 2024 to Aug 15, 2024
No window of opportunity
Files
New Comment
It is unclear to me why there is a distinction made between forecasts and comments in the numbers when a comment is required with every forecast? I would like to see how many of those comments were unique or insightful, versus how many are some variations of "calibrating for time".
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
20%
Yes
Earthquake
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
60%
Yes
Would be big win for Bibi
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
Yes
Very unlikely
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
Yes
Unlikely
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
12%
Yes
Very unlikely
Files
no