Informed by:
My own research on other Q on same bills:
https://www.infer-pub.com/comments/51029
@MullenAustin having done similar research on this Q:
https://www.infer-pub.com/comments/50857
Office of Science leadership
https://www.energy.gov/science/leadership
Director of Office of Science was appointed by Biden and seems notable aligned with Democrat issues such as climate, soil and women's rights. I'm not sure if this has any implication on whether Senate (republican majority) would be interested in increasing budget to the requested amount.
Deputy director Dr J Stephen Binks seems quite focussed on exascale computing and its implications for US national strategy. Talks of both AI and non-AI applications. This seems relatively non-partisan.
https://science.house.gov/imo/media/doc/Dr.%20Binkley%20Testimony.pdf
Ideally there should be an easy way to look at a lot of other bills passed by both appropriation committees, and see which committee's passed amounts have more weight. Does the resulting budget amount look like minimum (of house and senate app. committee recommendations) or average of the two or just what the house says or something else? Unfortunately I do not know any easy way to get this data, websites of both appropriation committees just have press releases which makes it difficult to compare.
https://appropriations.house.gov/news/press-releases
https://www.appropriations.senate.gov/news/majority
And it's hard to find the exact same bill on both sites. If someone knows a better way to get this data, feel free to reply my comment or ping me.
My forecast is therefore mostly just going to rely on what other people have said. Low likelihood of anything but the middle bin, and 3rd bin is more likely than the 1st bin because that's the dept of science requested in the first place.
Updating forecast because I saw good reasons in comments for budget to go down more likely than up (senate tends to allocate less), and I'm not sure whether they're weaker than my argument (original dept of science request larger). Just putting equal odds now in 1st and 3rd bin because I don't have much of an opinion.