INFER Public

Will Ali Khamenei flee Iran or cease to be Supreme Leader in the next year?

Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 26, 2024 08:33AM UTC
(1 month ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	5%	Mar 26, 2024 to Mar 26, 2025	Jun 26, 2024	9%	-4%	+2%
No	95%	Mar 26, 2024 to Mar 26, 2025	Jun 26, 2024	91%	+4%	-2%

Will Israel declare war on Hezbollah in the next 12 months?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Sep 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 26, 2024 08:39AM UTC
(1 month ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	6%	Mar 26, 2024 to Mar 26, 2025	Apr 26, 2024	26%	-20%	+14%
No	94%	Mar 26, 2024 to Mar 26, 2025	Apr 26, 2024	74%	+20%	-14%

Will Israel declare war on Hezbollah in the next 6 months?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Sep 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 26, 2024 08:40AM UTC
(1 month ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	4%	Mar 26, 2024 to Sep 26, 2024	Apr 26, 2024	17%	-13%	+3%
No	96%	Mar 26, 2024 to Sep 26, 2024	Apr 26, 2024	83%	+13%	-3%

Will Iraq return its ambassador to Iran in the next month?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 26, 2024 08:49AM UTC
(1 month ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	5%	Mar 26, 2024 to Apr 26, 2024	Apr 26, 2024	6%	-1%	-1%
No	95%	Mar 26, 2024 to Apr 26, 2024	Apr 26, 2024	94%	+1%	+1%

Will Myanmar hold national elections before 1 July 2025?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 26, 2024 08:53AM UTC
(1 month ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	5%	-5%	-2%
No	100%	95%	+5%	+2%

Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 26, 2024 08:57AM UTC
(1 month ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	Mar 26, 2024 to Sep 26, 2024	Apr 26, 2024	4%	-4%	+4%
No	100%	Mar 26, 2024 to Sep 26, 2024	Apr 26, 2024	96%	+4%	-4%

For each of the 5 quarters listed, what is the probability that North America’s share of TSMC’s net revenue will be less than 40%?

Forecast Count:
11 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 16, 2024 05:02AM UTC
(9 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
2023 Q2	0%	0%	+0%	+0%
2023 Q3	0%	0%	+0%	+0%
2023 Q4	0%	0%	+0%	+0%
2024 Q1	0%	1%	-1%	+0%
2024 Q2	0%	1%	-1%	+0%

Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 May 2024?

Forecast Count:
11 Forecasts

Question Ends:
May 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(6 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 16, 2024 05:02AM UTC
(9 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	2%	0%	+2%	-1%

Will the Global Protest Tracker record a significant antigovernment protest involving 10,000 or more participants in Thailand between April 2023 and April 2024?

Forecast Count:
13 Forecasts

Question Ends:
May 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(6 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 16, 2024 05:02AM UTC
(9 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	2%	0%	+2%	+0%

By 31 December 2024, will Microsoft announce that its AI Research Lab in China is closing or being relocated?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 16, 2024 05:02AM UTC
(9 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	5%	8%	-3%	+0%
No	95%	92%	+3%	+0%

Revmag

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