Bit ambiguous, but passage of time indicates this, though this is bound to happen in the future, but <2 months seem a bit less
0.255294
Relative Brier Score
152
Forecasts
2
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 26 | 35 | 601 | 108 | 882 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 19 |
| Questions Forecasted | 26 | 34 | 97 | 40 | 157 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 1 | 21 | 3 | 25 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
19%
(-12%)
Yes
81%
(+12%)
No
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
22%
(+20%)
Yes
Apr 16, 2024 to Oct 16, 2024
After the attack, it might so happen, and Israel too have stated that they will seek revenge in light of recent events
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
76%
(+6%)
Less than or equal to 49
24%
(-6%)
Between 50 and 99, inclusive
0%
(0%)
Between 100 and 149, inclusive
0%
(0%)
Between 150 and 199, inclusive
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 200
Updating due to the passage of time
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(0%)
Yes
98%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
2%
(0%)
Yes
Apr 16, 2024 to Oct 16, 2024
98%
(0%)
No
Apr 16, 2024 to Oct 16, 2024
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
5%
(0%)
Yes
Apr 16, 2024 to Oct 16, 2024
95%
(0%)
No
Apr 16, 2024 to Oct 16, 2024
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
6%
(0%)
S-400 or S-500 missile system
6%
(0%)
Su-35 fighter jets
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
2%
(0%)
Yes
Apr 16, 2024 to Oct 16, 2024
98%
(0%)
No
Apr 16, 2024 to Oct 16, 2024
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes, the stockpile will be reduced by 100% to 0 kg
0%
(0%)
No, the stockpile will be reduced by 50% or more (>0 kg - 61.8 kg)
4%
(0%)
No, the stockpile will be reduced by less than 50% (>61.8 kg - 123.6 kg)
96%
(0%)
No, the stockpile will increase (>123.6 kg)
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
Rejection by Hamas + recent attacks, less chance of this happening