| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 1 | 19 | 227 | 49 | 434 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 16 |
| Questions Forecasted | 1 | 18 | 56 | 21 | 86 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 1 | 5 | 65 | 15 | 77 |
| Definitions | |||||
Hat tip to @ctsats for the observation that the base rate data is unreliable:
https://www.infer-pub.com/comments/122911
Also noting @michal_dubrawski's observations: https://www.infer-pub.com/comments/124467
We have 7 potentially habitable exoplanets added this year (it's unclear to me how many were from 2023), and 1 for 2024
Given the problems with the base rate data, I'm updating down, but only slightly since we already have one for this year.
Dysprosium oxide is used in the production of magnets, I don't see demand suddenly increasing on this time-frame. I suppose there is still geopolitical risk, but I give it a low probability given the time on the question and it's unclear why restrictions on the supply would be put in place.
Currently well below $1000/kg, at $255/kg.
An 84 year old American male has a 9.8% chance of dying in the next year. This + the chance of incapacitation such that one must resign from such a role would be higher.
There are rumors that he has poor health: https://www.france24.com/en/middle-east/20220925-iran-ayatollah-khamenei-s-health-issues-prompt-fresh-speculation-on-succession
But this is not uncommon for a man of his age, so I would not deviate up much from the actuarial tables. He may also get better healthcare than the average American 84 year old male.
I think the political risk to him in Iran is pretty low.
No out-of-distribution events on this that move me. Underlying factors remain the same. I don't think Iran want a war.
I think I was too high on this, they haven't committed to holding elections by this date, just by the end of 2025, and new reasons can always be found to further postpone.
Another slight update upwards on this with Microsoft bringing in Mustafa Suleyman - for the same reasoning as I updated upwards with the Mistral partnership: https://www.infer-pub.com/comments/121104
Increasing probability of a war with recent events (Iran missile attacks on Israel).
Still think it's unlikely because I don't think Iran actually want a war, weird as it may sound to say as missiles are being shot from the sky.