Javretro2000

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0.039024

Relative Brier Score

4

Forecasts

1

Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
 

Past Week Past Month Past Year This Season All Time
Forecasts 0 1 32 4 61
Comments 0 0 0 0 0
Questions Forecasted 0 1 14 4 23
Upvotes on Comments By This User 0 0 1 1 2
 Definitions
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New Prediction
Javretro2000
made their 1st forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
Yes
Apr 11, 2024 to Apr 11, 2025
100%
No
Apr 11, 2024 to Apr 11, 2025
Ali Khamenei will not leave Iran or cease to be Supreme Leader in the next year because he is the maximum leader of the Persian country and the head of the Shiite Islam. Khamenei is the source of inspiration for the Iranian Army and the strong man who will guide Iran in a possible war against Israel or the United States.
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New Prediction
Javretro2000
made their 1st forecast (view all):
This forecast expired on Apr 1, 2024 08:33PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
100%
Yes
Mar 1, 2024 to Sep 1, 2024
0%
No
Mar 1, 2024 to Sep 1, 2024
Hezbollah will launch a missile that impacts more than 10 kilometers into Israel over the next six months because it will take advantage of the Israel’s forces displacement into the South to destroy Hamas, so that Jerusalem won’t be capable to stop all the attacks against its territory.
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New Prediction
Javretro2000
made their 1st forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
Yes
Feb 7, 2024 to Feb 7, 2025
100%
No
Feb 7, 2024 to Feb 7, 2025
Iran won’t be involved at any war with another country in the next year because its strategy is to weaken its enemies’ forces through indirect attacks . This is what Teran is applying against Israel through Hamas, Hezbollah and the houthis. Iran will strengthen its arsenal before entering into formal conflict with another country.
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New Prediction
Javretro2000
made their 2nd forecast (view all):
This forecast expired on Feb 8, 2024 11:25PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0% (0%)
Yes
Jan 8, 2024 to Jul 8, 2024
100% (0%)
No
Jan 8, 2024 to Jul 8, 2024
Iran is now focused on weakening Israel’s defenses through its allies, like Hamas, the Houthis and Hezbollah, and the Iranian government is accelerating its efforts to get its first atomic bomb. So, Iranians are not interested in attacking the U.S. forces in the next six months, especially when they are closed enough to be a nuclear state. Any attack against the U.S. forces could provoke a counterattack that could delay the construction of the first Iranian atomic bomb.
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Javretro2000
earned a new badge:

Top Forecaster of the Month - Dec 2023

Earned for being in the Top 10% of the leaderboard in a month.
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Javretro2000
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Top Forecaster of the Month - Nov 2023

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New Prediction
Javretro2000
made their 1st forecast (view all):
This forecast expired on Mar 18, 2024 06:05PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
Yes
Dec 18, 2023 to Jun 18, 2024
100%
No
Dec 18, 2023 to Jun 18, 2024
No, Iran will not attack Israel by any way in the next six months. Iran is not interested in attacking Israel directly; it will continue to support and use its allies, like Hamas, the Houthis and, in the case, Hezbollah, to deplete Israel’s military strength. And before entering into direct conflict with Israel, Iran will develop its own nuclear weapons to have a better chance to defeat Israel.
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