It is ulikely as there were not that many fatalities in the past in such short period. Ukraine has issues with its Air defence but Kiev region is probably best guarded.Â
0.037384
Relative Brier Score
102
Forecasts
9
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 11 | 21 | 463 | 102 | 774 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 8 |
| Questions Forecasted | 11 | 14 | 45 | 19 | 70 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 63 | 9 | 90 |
| Â Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
Yes
99%
No
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Kuwait
0%
(0%)
Oman
0%
(0%)
Qatar
0%
(0%)
Saudi Arabia
0%
(0%)
Tunisia
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(0%)
S-400 or S-500 missile system
5%
(0%)
Su-35 fighter jets
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(-1%)
Yes
passage of time
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
70%
(0%)
Yes
30%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
100%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
100%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Less than or equal to 749
0%
(0%)
Between 750 and 1499, inclusive
0%
(-10%)
Between 1500 and 2249, inclusive
100%
(+10%)
Between 2250 and 2999, inclusive
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 3000
passage of time and current situation
Files
I think there is less than 1% probability for each. I do not think that Russia will have ability to do it in 3 years. It would need to decisevily win war in Ukraine which is unlikely to move further. And still I do not think that NATO will collapse before 1 April 2027 even if Donald Trump would win in November.Russia would not risk invading Baltic states.