Confirmed previous forecast
0.206455
Relative Brier Score
86
Forecasts
6
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 8 | 19 | 350 | 86 | 469 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 17 | 5 | 57 |
| Questions Forecasted | 7 | 15 | 40 | 16 | 46 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 1 | 48 | 6 | 69 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(0%)
Yes
95%
(0%)
No
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Kuwait
0%
(0%)
Oman
1%
(+1%)
Qatar
0%
(0%)
Saudi Arabia
0%
(0%)
Tunisia
Increasing based on the external push for this to happen.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(-2%)
Yes
99%
(+2%)
No
Time.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
100%
(+1%)
Yes
0%
(-1%)
No
It has to pass the Senate, because the bill was slightly changed. This is just a formality and barring Washington being hit by a comet, should happen by Tuesday,
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
99%
Yes
1%
No
Seems it is happening.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/apr/19/house-democrats-mike-johnson-foreign-aid
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
2%
(+1%)
Yes
Apr 20, 2024 to Oct 20, 2024
98%
(-1%)
No
Apr 20, 2024 to Oct 20, 2024
USA is trying to push for it. However, I don't think it will be successful.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
55%
(-15%)
Yes
45%
(+15%)
No
Reducing based on the current conflict escalation between Israel and Iran.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
15%
(+5%)
Yes
Apr 16, 2024 to Apr 16, 2025
85%
(-5%)
No
Apr 16, 2024 to Apr 16, 2025
Increasing given the fact that Israel government has stated they will responde Iran attack, however Iran doesn't want to increase tensions.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
90%
(+13%)
Yes
10%
(-13%)
No
Why might you be wrong?
Files
It hasn't happened before and it will have to be a pretty massive attack, I think it is quite unlikely.