Adjusting towards group consensus.
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Relative Brier Score
31
Forecasts
4
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Forecasts | 3 | 14 | 167 | 31 | 212 |
Comments | 0 | 4 | 39 | 6 | 53 |
Questions Forecasted | 3 | 11 | 33 | 13 | 43 |
Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 3 | 19 | 4 | 31 |
Definitions |
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
25%
(-5%)
Yes
Mar 24, 2024 to Sep 24, 2024
75%
(+5%)
No
Mar 24, 2024 to Sep 24, 2024
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
(0%)
Yes
Mar 21, 2024 to Sep 21, 2024
99%
(0%)
No
Mar 21, 2024 to Sep 21, 2024
Not big enough changes in sentiment and news to warrant an update.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(-1%)
Yes
100%
(+1%)
No
Time
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
20%
(-15%)
Yes
Mar 16, 2024 to Apr 16, 2024
80%
(+15%)
No
Mar 16, 2024 to Apr 16, 2024
Updating towards crowd forecast due to no confirmation on the sus news
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
35%
Yes
Mar 14, 2024 to Mar 14, 2025
65%
No
Mar 14, 2024 to Mar 14, 2025
Why do you think you're right?
From my 6-months answer (see the comment for working links):
- General sentiment seems to be a bit grim. There have been negative sentiment all around, including the articles linked in the description, and other sources (1, 2).
- Hezbollah sentiment on HAMAS positive.
- Additional aggression might not be as damaging to Israel's reputation compared to before?
- Metaculus gives 35% likelihood to a similar question (will there be 1000 or more dead in Israel-Hezbollah conflict).
- Manifold gives a very high likelihood of 50% of Israel-Hezbollah war in 2024 (however, their resolution criteria is a bit vague, mentioning war-time military action as a resolver).
Further reasoning for upping the likelihood:
- Aggressive sentiment might rise after 6 months.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
- There might not be an official declaration of war even if there is military action taken.
- We might be in an aggressive sentiment phase that mellows in the future.
- International reaction to Israel might take a turn towards greater sternness.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
30%
Yes
Mar 14, 2024 to Sep 14, 2024
70%
No
Mar 14, 2024 to Sep 14, 2024
Why do you think you're right?
- General sentiment seems to be a bit grim. There have been negative sentiment all around, including the articles linked in the description, and other sources (1, 2).
- Hezbollah sentiment on HAMAS positive.
- Additional aggression might not be as damaging to Israel's reputation compared to before?
- Metaculus gives 35% likelihood to a similar question (will there be 1000 or more dead in Israel-Hezbollah conflict).
-
Manifold gives a very high likelihood of 50% of Israel-Hezbollah war in 2024 (however, their resolution criteria is a bit vague, mentioning war-time military action as a resolver).
Files
Why might you be wrong?
- There might not be an official declaration of war even if there is military action taken.
- We might be in an aggressive sentiment phase that mellows in the future.
- International reaction to Israel might take a turn towards greater sternness.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
Time
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(0%)
Yes
98%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
2023 Q2
0%
(0%)
2023 Q3
0%
(0%)
2023 Q4
0%
(0%)
2024 Q1
0%
(0%)
2024 Q2
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
Adjusting towards group consensus