Too short time, too much bureaucracy
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Top Forecaster of the Month - Dec 2023
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Top Forecaster of the Month - Nov 2023
Earned for being in the Top 10% of the leaderboard in a month.
New Prediction
In collaboration with the UK Professional Head of Intelligence Assessment
Probability
Answer
10%
(-90%)
Yes
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
some authoritarian country may do it. eg: North korea
Files
Again, please notice that North Korea is not in the list of supported countries, as they have already banned it - hence they are irrelevant for the question here!
Files
New Prediction
In collaboration with the UK Professional Head of Intelligence Assessment
Probability
Answer
100%
Yes
Why do you think you're right?
Chat GPT is trained mostly with occidental text in english. I believe countrys like chine would prefer a tool like that to be trained with their own texts
Files
Why might you be wrong?
It may take a little bit longer.
Files
Please notice that the question essentially does not apply to China, as the Chinese have already banned ChatGPT and China is not in the current list of supported countries: https://platform.openai.com/docs/supported-countries
You can find a table with the countries not currently in the list in my post below: https://www.infer-pub.com/comments/83666
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
50%
Yes
50%
No
Why do you think you're right?
not clear yet how this may affect their Ad income and user engaging
Files
Why might you be wrong?
not clear yet how this may affect their Ad income and user engaging
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
95%
Yes
Why do you think you're right?
Will allow Microsoft to acquire more market share in the search engines market
Files
Why might you be wrong?
If the product is not yet ready
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
90%
(0%)
Japan
90%
(0%)
The Netherlands
95%
(0%)
South Korea
95%
(0%)
Any other country not listed
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
Why do you think you're right?
It must be an authoritarian country considering the short time. Key ones already banned chat gpt. https://www.pcguide.com/apps/countries-chatgpt-not-available/
Why might you be wrong?
Some soft autocracy may still ban it.