PeterStamp

First of all, these are all easy targets. They´re not in NATO, have little military capabilities, and are close neighbors. If Putins wants to, he can do it without too much extra risk and without needing too many troops. Should he win in Ukraine or Trump get reelected, or he needs some kind of "success" or distraction, he might be tempted to satisfy his imperialistic appetite in one or more of these. These are all but Armenia MUCH more likely than the baltic states IMO.

1) Moldova
They´ve got serious trouble over Transnistria (link 1), plus russian troops are already guarding the military depot (link 4). Putin might decide to distract from other things by simply taking over the country (one of those lovely "provocations", and he has a "reason). Easiest target, most trouble already.

2) Armenia

Russia seems to withdraw it´s peace troops (incredible, but there this might indeed have been the intention; link 5) from Armenia. Why should they come back to occupy the country? Very unlikely.

3) Georgia
They´ve done this before (2008), and currently there are large anti-russian protests (link 2). Strong candidate.

4) Kazakhstan
With the flood of the century currently going on (the news are full of this) and Kazachstan depending on Russia economically as well (link 3), I don´t see an immediate reason to invade the country. OTOH not everone there is agreeing with Russia vs. Ukraine, and Russia being imperialistic as it is, Kazakhstan might be an easy "success" for Putin, so there is a little threat as well.

https://www.spiegel.de/ausland/transnistrien-darum-geht-es-in-dem-konflikt-zwischen-russland-und-moldau-a-60b16625-82ea-4186-b39d-6777e13fa8ac

https://www.fr.de/politik/massenproteste-georgien-putin-droht-rebellion-nachbarland-gesetz-russland-93017804.html

https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kasachisch-russische_Beziehungen

https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Munitionsdepot_Cobasna

https://www.n-tv.de/politik/Russland-zieht-Soldaten-aus-Berg-Karabach-ab-article24879142.html

The bar set for this is high: we need a serious attempt to conquer those countries, which would 100% lead to a NATO article V scenario, which in the end would probably mean World War III (or at least a few hundred Taurus missiles plus many hundred NATO Fighter airplanes shooting a lot of stuff in Russia (and before that the russian troops in Ukraine) to pieces). In order for that to become realistic, we would need something like Trump becoming US president again and leaving NATO or at least letting Putin do, whatever he wants. And Russia would need to have more or less won in Ukraine and be able to withdraw troops from there OR have switched to 100% war economy, with a full mobilization (they´ve got all military resources employed in Ukraine or on other essential borders). Otherwise the to be expected bloody nose would be too painful for even the most determined imperialist to try this. I´ve been wrong about Ukraine, as the 2022 invasion does not makes the slightest sense except for feeding imperialistic paranoia (which Putin chose to do), but this one would be another dimension concerning risk.

Lithuania, lying between Kaliningrad and Belarus is the most likely first target, so at first I was tempted to give this a higher percentage than the others. But there will be a german armoured brigade permanently stationed in the country soon (first preparations are already on the way, link 1), so attacking Lithuania would mean multiple reasons for a NATO article V scenario.

Conclusion: all about equally unlikely, but unfortunately thinkable. Starting with 1% each.

https://www.bmvg.de/de/themen/dossiers/die-nato-staerke-und-dialog/schutz-der-nato-ostflanke/brigade-in-litauen-fragen-und-antworten

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