-0.312256
Relative Brier Score
19
Forecasts
1
Upvotes
Forecasting Calendar
Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
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Forecasts | 0 | 6 | 85 | 21 | 338 |
Comments | 0 | 1 | 14 | 1 | 62 |
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Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 1 | 86 | 11 | 171 |
Definitions |
Iran wants a ceasefire, the US is currently negotiating one (albeit with limited success). An (attributed) Iranian airstrike will be counterproductive.
Will track the ceasefire negotiations, and revise if those fail.
Also re-upping previous rationale, with the addendum that according to WaPo, Tehran has reportedly urged the groups it is backing to exercise restraint.
"Many see the Houthis as Iranian proxies. But this is only part of the story, as the Houthis are also using their ties with Iran to advance their own interests and have been keen to expand relations. They have been under attack by a military force far superior in conventional terms, and only Iran has been willing and able to provide external support. But this does not make them pawns of Iran. There is no evidence, as some Iran hawks allege, that the Houthis take orders from Tehran or would have adopted significantly different policies absent Iranian support."
Iran, and most of the Middle East, really just wants to region to stabilize, and for a feasible two-state solution to come out of this conflict. And the United States' role in bringing this conflict to a close is crucial (and grounded in historical precedents), because Israel really has no other friends in the region. Unless there is a fundamental change in this calculus, either in DC or in Tehran, a deliberate attack is highly unlikely.
No updates since the news in January. Lowering "Yes" by a couple of percentage points.
It's the year of AI chips, evidenced by Nvidia's rapid growth in value, inching closer to Apple, which remains the world's most valuable company by a relatively slim margin.
"Last month, the chip maker reported a 769 percent increase in fourth-quarter profit and a 580 percent jump in full-year profit compared to the previous year."
TSMC and Nvidia are the leaders in AI chips, and according to Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo, the AI boom has generated massive demand for chips.
With all this in mind, remaining highly optimistic for 2024.
https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/nvidia-might-soon-surpass-apple-as-worlds-second-most-valuable-company
Thanks @ctsats. This is unclear from the language of the notification, which does not specify whether this applies only to content generated using the platform's own tools. GoI had earlier released a statement saying they are considering measures to ensure platforms make "reasonable efforts to not host" AI-generated disinformation.
Waiting on clarity on what this means, and have to admit I'm not fluent in legalese.
This question links quite clearly with the threat assessments forecasters have made for the questions on a PLA attack on Taiwan (https://www.infer-pub.com/questions/1257-will-the-people-s-liberation-army-invade-blockade-or-attack-the-main-island-of-taiwan-in-the-next-six-months) and general risk from natural disasters in the question on a TSMC shutdown (https://www.infer-pub.com/questions/1258-will-any-tsmc-fab-in-taiwan-be-shut-down-for-at-least-one-day-because-of-a-non-scheduled-emergency-by-31-march-2024/).
The crowd has determined a zero to one percent chance on each question.
Going through Australia's travel advisory portal, it looks like they also take a cue from advisories issued by the US, Canada and UK. All three recommend exercising normal precautions. The most recent to be updated is Canada's advisory, which recommends some precautions due to high volume of travel during the Lunar New Year.
Refs:
Australia: https://www.smartraveller.gov.au/destinations/asia/taiwan (Updated Oct 9, 2023)
Canada: https://travel.gc.ca/destinations/taiwan (Updated Feb 7, 2024)
UK: https://www.gov.uk/foreign-travel-advice/taiwan (Updated January 9, 2024)
US: https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/traveladvisories/traveladvisories/taiwan-travel-advisory.html (Updated July 11, 2023)
Re-upping last rationale.
Read this detailed analysis by Jim Lewis over at CSIS: https://www.csis.org/analysis/cyberattack-civilian-critical-infrastructures-taiwan-scenario
I am inclined to agree that Beijing and the PLA do not have any appetite for a protracted conflict, and if they were to resort to something kinetic, would prefer something short and targeted. US military resources are massive and unlikely to lead to any easy win in the short-term.
Furthermore, despite resources being pulled in several directions (Ukraine, Israel/Palestine), Congress did approve a USD 300 million military aid package to Taiwan (https://english.president.gov.tw/NEWS/6660).
Taiwan election has gone by with no major upsets or upheavals.
Also:
"The Chinese military started using regular “deck cargo” ships in drills last year but the vessels may not give much of an immediate logistics boost to any efforts to attack Taiwan, according to a retired US Navy intelligence officer.
The integration of deck cargo ships into People’s Liberation Army exercises last year was “the most significant innovation” in the PLA’s coordinated efforts and interactions with civilian maritime assets, J. Michael Dahm, now senior resident fellow at the US-based Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies, said in the latest China Maritime Report."
Additional resources: https://media.defense.gov/2023/Oct/19/2003323409/-1/-1/1/2023-MILITARY-AND-SECURITY-DEVELOPMENTS-INVOLVING-THE-PEOPLES-REPUBLIC-OF-CHINA.PDF
Lowering with time and no breakthroughs on the technical feasibility of a solution.
Meta has announced labelling for images, but text continues to be a major challenge.
Started this question with a better than even chance, lowering to far less than even. #Diplomacyishard
"Two American officials agreed that the prospects are not promising of Israel and Hamas agreeing to the temporary truce by the start of the Muslim holy month early next week. " (CNN)
I am intrigued by Biden saying that the impetus is on Hamas. According to CNN, Hamas has demanded that "...in the first phase the Israeli military would pull back from Gazan cities and in a second withdraw from the enclave altogether, according to the diplomat who said the IDF is refusing to agree to those points." After months of conflict, continued violation of IDF's own promises to mitigate harm to civilians, it is hard to see an end-state that can fully accommodate the IDF's stance (and maybe that is the intention).
The only practical means to a ceasefire would be for the US to use more from its toolbox, not just airdropping supplies to Gaza (reducing/cutting arms assistance for example). And the political feasibility of that is bleak.