10th
Accuracy Rank

aggaray

About:

I am Electrical Engineer with a Master in Computer Science and one in Economics and Finances. PM4R Professional, ISO 9001:2015 Lead Auditor, LEGO MINDSTORM EV3 Robots Specialist, IEEE Senior Member and active volunteer in many organizations. I work with the Monitoring of the National SDG Agenda and I am an active promoter of STEM Careers, More participation of Women in Engineering, Data Science and the role that Technology and Tech Professionals have in the Sustainable Development of our Communities and the design and implementation of Public Policies.
I do believe data can be and most be used for the Sustainable Development of our Communities and projects like FORETELL should be supported, promoted and replicated as much as possible in US and around the World.

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2024 Season Stats

-0.165548

Relative Brier Score

87

Forecasts

12

Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
 
Past Week Past Month Past Year This Season All Time
Forecasts 10 32 242 87 862
Comments 3 4 33 22 86
Questions Forecasted 10 31 53 35 175
Upvotes on Comments By This User 0 2 20 12 44
 Definitions
New Badge
aggaray earned a new badge:

Questions Forecasted

For forecasting in 175 questions!
New Prediction
Will Israel declare war on Hezbollah in the next 12 months?
aggaray made their 1st forecast (view all):
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
15%
Yes
Apr 19, 2024 to Apr 19, 2025
85%
No
Apr 19, 2024 to Apr 19, 2025
Why do you think you're right?

My forecast with a reduced 15% considers that lately practically no country declares war to another country or to specific groups

Files
Why might you be wrong?
I could be wrong if actions coming from the current situation with Iran, changes the way Israel considers Hezbollah
Files
New Prediction

Very unlikely at least considering latest news about the Thai Protester´s Movement of 2021

Files
New Prediction
Will Iran be at war with another country in the next year?
aggaray made their 3rd forecast (view all):
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
15% (+7%)
Yes
Apr 15, 2024 to Apr 15, 2025
85% (-7%)
No
Apr 15, 2024 to Apr 15, 2025
Why do you think you're right?

Updating my forecast considering the latest attacks from Iran to Israel...i really hope this won´t happen

Files
Why might you be wrong?

A full escalate of the conflict

Files
New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Will Israel and Saudi Arabia publicly acknowledge that they are resuming the normalization process in the next six months?
aggaray made their 5th forecast (view all):
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1% (0%)
Yes
Apr 15, 2024 to Oct 15, 2024
99% (0%)
No
Apr 15, 2024 to Oct 15, 2024
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction

Updating my forecast considering the latest attacks from Iran to Israel

Files
New Prediction
From 1 June 2023 to 31 May 2024, how many battles and incidents of violence against civilians will ACLED record in Venezuela?
aggaray made their 10th forecast (view all):
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
90% (0%)
Less than or equal to 499
10% (0%)
Between 500 and 999, inclusive
0% (0%)
Between 1000 and 1499, inclusive
0% (0%)
Between 1500 and 1999, inclusive
0% (0%)
More than or equal to 2000
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
Files
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