Confirmed previous forecast
0.034348
Relative Brier Score
103
Forecasts
10
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 12 | 56 | 378 | 103 | 1041 |
| Comments | 0 | 7 | 102 | 19 | 217 |
| Questions Forecasted | 12 | 36 | 96 | 39 | 247 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 3 | 51 | 10 | 93 |
| Â Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
Will Dina Boluarte cease to be president of Peru through an irregular transition before 1 May 2024?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Yes
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(-1%)
Yes
time
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(-1%)
Yes
time
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Yes
99%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
This forecast will expire on May 25, 2024
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
(0%)
Yes
Apr 25, 2024 to Oct 25, 2024
99%
(0%)
No
Apr 25, 2024 to Oct 25, 2024
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Less than or equal to 749
0%
(0%)
Between 750 and 1499, inclusive
4%
(-6%)
Between 1500 and 2249, inclusive
95%
(+6%)
Between 2250 and 2999, inclusive
1%
(0%)
More than or equal to 3000
time update
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
92%
(+2%)
Less than or equal to 49
5%
(-2%)
Between 50 and 99, inclusive
1%
(0%)
Between 100 and 149, inclusive
1%
(0%)
Between 150 and 199, inclusive
1%
(0%)
More than or equal to 200
time update
Files
New Prediction
This forecast will expire on May 23, 2024
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
3%
Yes
Apr 23, 2024 to May 23, 2024
97%
No
Apr 23, 2024 to May 23, 2024
international tensions iran
Files
New Prediction
This forecast will expire on May 23, 2024
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
35%
(-30%)
Yes
Apr 23, 2024 to Apr 23, 2025
65%
(+30%)
No
Apr 23, 2024 to Apr 23, 2025
iran israel has not escallated to all out war yet
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
20%
(-20%)
Yes
Apr 23, 2024 to Oct 23, 2024
80%
(+20%)
No
Apr 23, 2024 to Oct 23, 2024
Comment deleted on Apr 23, 2024 02:22PM UTC
Files