Moving towards crowd.
-0.014418
Relative Brier Score
17
Forecasts
1
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 151 | 17 | 492 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 21 | 0 | 48 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 30 | 13 | 98 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 16 | 1 | 64 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
57%
(+10%)
Yes
43%
(-10%)
No
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
8%
(-22%)
Yes
92%
(+22%)
No
Reducing with time. This doesn't look like it's going to happen. The equilibrium instead seems to be to kick if there are bad actors.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
(-1%)
Yes
97%
(+1%)
No
Reducing with time.
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Mar 19, 2024 08:08PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
10%
(-5%)
Yes
Feb 19, 2024 to Aug 19, 2024
90%
(+5%)
No
Feb 19, 2024 to Aug 19, 2024
Reducing with stability.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Yes
99%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(-1%)
Yes
Reducing with time.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes, the stockpile will be reduced by 100% to 0 kg
1%
(0%)
No, the stockpile will be reduced by 50% or more (>0 kg - 61.8 kg)
1%
(0%)
No, the stockpile will be reduced by less than 50% (>61.8 kg - 123.6 kg)
98%
(0%)
No, the stockpile will increase (>123.6 kg)
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Mar 19, 2024 08:07PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
(0%)
Yes
Feb 19, 2024 to Aug 19, 2024
99%
(0%)
No
Feb 19, 2024 to Aug 19, 2024
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
Moving with time.