According to Israeli sources, Iran has launched drones towards Israel - however, they may still take some hours to reach Israel [0].
0.187979
Relative Brier Score
105
Forecasts
1
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 2 | 16 | 565 | 105 | 2427 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 14 | 1 | 93 |
| Questions Forecasted | 1 | 15 | 77 | 35 | 199 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 43 | 1 | 172 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Will Iran launch missiles targeting Israel or conduct an airstrike in Israel in the next six months?
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
85%
(+84%)
Yes
Apr 13, 2024 to Oct 13, 2024
15%
(-84%)
No
Apr 13, 2024 to Oct 13, 2024
Files
New Badge
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
(0%)
Yes
Mar 24, 2024 to Sep 24, 2024
99%
(0%)
No
Mar 24, 2024 to Sep 24, 2024
Confirming my previous forecast.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
7%
(-2%)
Yes
Mar 24, 2024 to Sep 24, 2024
93%
(+2%)
No
Mar 24, 2024 to Sep 24, 2024
Updating.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
(0%)
Yes
Mar 24, 2024 to Sep 24, 2024
99%
(0%)
No
Mar 24, 2024 to Sep 24, 2024
Confirming my previous forecast.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
10%
Yes
Mar 24, 2024 to Mar 24, 2025
90%
No
Mar 24, 2024 to Mar 24, 2025
Starting out, baseline for age-related death by @Matt-Petersen, @MrLittleTexas, @efosong and @404_NOT_FOUND [1,2,3,4].
[1] https://www.infer-pub.com/comments/123482 [2] https://www.infer-pub.com/comments/123180 [3] https://www.infer-pub.com/comments/123092 [4] https://www.infer-pub.com/comments/123016
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(0%)
Yes
98%
(0%)
No
Confirming my previous forecast.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
75%
(+16%)
Less than or equal to 49
23%
(-15%)
Between 50 and 99, inclusive
1%
(-1%)
Between 100 and 149, inclusive
1%
(0%)
Between 150 and 199, inclusive
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 200
Updating - time & development of numbers.
Files
Well, pretty much over now I guess.