INFER Public

Will Houthi rebels execute an attack against an Israeli civil or military vessel in the next 6 months?

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 27, 2024 07:48PM UTC
(28 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	15%	Mar 27, 2024 to Sep 27, 2024	Apr 27, 2024	14%	+1%	+1%
No	85%	Mar 27, 2024 to Sep 27, 2024	Apr 27, 2024	86%	-1%	-1%

Will Iran agree to limit uranium enrichment to 5% or less in the next 6 months?

Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 27, 2024 07:49PM UTC
(28 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	Mar 27, 2024 to Sep 27, 2024	Jun 27, 2024	0%	+0%	+0%

Will the New York Times, CBC, or BBC announce that they will only publish photos or videos containing digital provenance (e.g., C2PA) by 31 May 2024?

Forecast Count:
13 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 27, 2024 07:49PM UTC
(28 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	5%	-5%	+0%
No	100%	95%	+5%	+0%

Will at least five more exoplanets be found to be potentially habitable between 1 February 2024 and 31 December 2024?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 27, 2024 07:51PM UTC
(28 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	75%	79%	-4%	+4%
No	25%	21%	+4%	-4%

Will Iran launch missiles or conduct an airstrike against U.S. forces in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 27, 2024 07:51PM UTC
(28 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	10%	Mar 27, 2024 to Sep 27, 2024	Apr 27, 2024	5%	+5%	+3%
No	90%	Mar 27, 2024 to Sep 27, 2024	Apr 27, 2024	95%	-5%	-3%

Will Iran be impacted by a cyberattack targeting critical infrastructure between 27 February 2024 and 1 March 2025?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 27, 2024 07:51PM UTC
(28 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	75%	82%	-7%	+6%
No	25%	18%	+7%	-6%

Will Israel and Saudi Arabia publicly acknowledge that they are resuming the normalization process in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 27, 2024 07:52PM UTC
(28 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	10%	Mar 27, 2024 to Sep 27, 2024	Apr 27, 2024	2%	+8%	+0%
No	90%	Mar 27, 2024 to Sep 27, 2024	Apr 27, 2024	98%	-8%	+0%

Will Iran eliminate its stockpile of uranium enriched up to 60% by 31 December 2024, according to the IAEA?

Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 27, 2024 07:52PM UTC
(28 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes, the stockpile will be reduced by 100% to 0 kg	0%	0%	+0%	+0%
No, the stockpile will be reduced by 50% or more (>0 kg - 61.8 kg)	0%	1%	-1%	+0%
No, the stockpile will be reduced by less than 50% (>61.8 kg - 123.6 kg)	5%	4%	+1%	-1%
No, the stockpile will increase (>123.6 kg)	95%	95%	+0%	+1%

Before 1 June 2024, will Facebook, WhatsApp, Messenger, or Twitter announce that they are labeling posts as potentially written by AI?

Forecast Count:
12 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 24, 2024 02:46PM UTC
(9 hours ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	5%	15%	-10%	+0%
No	95%	85%	+10%	+0%

Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 May 2024?

Forecast Count:
11 Forecasts

Question Ends:
May 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(6 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 24, 2024 02:48PM UTC
(9 hours ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	0%	+0%	+0%

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