Confirmed previous forecast
4.560396
Relative Brier Score
101
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 1 | 12 | 198 | 42 | 506 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 26 |
| Questions Forecasted | 1 | 11 | 29 | 14 | 87 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 22 | 4 | 27 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes, the stockpile will be reduced by 100% to 0 kg
0%
(0%)
No, the stockpile will be reduced by 50% or more (>0 kg - 61.8 kg)
5%
(0%)
No, the stockpile will be reduced by less than 50% (>61.8 kg - 123.6 kg)
95%
(0%)
No, the stockpile will increase (>123.6 kg)
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Yes
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
10%
(0%)
Yes
Mar 27, 2024 to Sep 27, 2024
90%
(0%)
No
Mar 27, 2024 to Sep 27, 2024
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
75%
(0%)
Yes
25%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
(0%)
Yes
Mar 27, 2024 to Sep 27, 2024
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
10%
(0%)
Yes
Mar 27, 2024 to Sep 27, 2024
90%
(0%)
No
Mar 27, 2024 to Sep 27, 2024
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
75%
(0%)
Yes
25%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Will Iran launch missiles targeting Israel or conduct an airstrike in Israel in the next six months?
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
(0%)
Yes
Mar 27, 2024 to Sep 27, 2024
99%
(0%)
No
Mar 27, 2024 to Sep 27, 2024
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
Just going by today's news, it sounds like Iran has launched drones and maybe missiles already, with Israel as the target.