They're busy dealing with the EU, Congress and other issues. Don't expect them to make any significant announcements along these lines in the next 5 weeks.
-0.420696
Relative Brier Score
170
Forecasts
20
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 2 | 14 | 197 | 44 | 508 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 26 |
| Questions Forecasted | 2 | 12 | 29 | 14 | 87 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 1 | 1 | 23 | 5 | 28 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(-15%)
Yes
95%
(+15%)
No
New Prediction
Will Iran launch missiles targeting Israel or conduct an airstrike in Israel in the next six months?
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
100%
(+99%)
Yes
Apr 14, 2024 to Oct 14, 2024
0%
(-99%)
No
Apr 14, 2024 to Oct 14, 2024
Just going by today's news, it sounds like Iran has launched drones and maybe missiles already, with Israel as the target.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes, the stockpile will be reduced by 100% to 0 kg
0%
(0%)
No, the stockpile will be reduced by 50% or more (>0 kg - 61.8 kg)
5%
(0%)
No, the stockpile will be reduced by less than 50% (>61.8 kg - 123.6 kg)
95%
(0%)
No, the stockpile will increase (>123.6 kg)
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Yes
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
10%
(0%)
Yes
Mar 27, 2024 to Sep 27, 2024
90%
(0%)
No
Mar 27, 2024 to Sep 27, 2024
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
75%
(0%)
Yes
25%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
(0%)
Yes
Mar 27, 2024 to Sep 27, 2024
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
10%
(0%)
Yes
Mar 27, 2024 to Sep 27, 2024
90%
(0%)
No
Mar 27, 2024 to Sep 27, 2024
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
Unless he's assassinated, Putin will last another week.