geoffodlum

Following colleagues' rationales and the very strong likelihood (based on bipartisan support now that it's finally on the floor) of passage in the House on Saturday and in the Senate next week.

Raising very slightly to 5% given current tensions..though I continue to believe that both the US and Israel understand that attacking an Iranian nuclear or missile-related facility is a dramatic escalation that would force Iran to respond in kind. Both sides are well practiced at confronting each other in carefully calibrated steps on the escalatory ladder, and there are alot of steps on that ladder short of attacking an Iranian nuclear or missile facility.

I've always been skeptical that Iran would launch a direct attack against Israel, given the Iranian leadership's longstanding doctrine of working instead through regional proxies. Iran has always been very careful not to get into a direct shooting war with Israel or the US.  The warnings of direct retaliation coming from Tehran the past few days are as sharp and explicit as I can recall seeing, but I still think the odds are fairly low that Iran will launch a direct attack, especially given Biden's warnings back to Iran - publicly and via the Swiss channel - to back down.  I anticipate more saber-rattling and threats of retaliation, but I think these will lead to calibrated strikes from proxies, not Iran, against Israeli military targets in the Golan Heights, which Iran will calculate would not lead to further escalation.

Passage of time