A bit late to the start line on this one. The level of activity makes it next to impossible that insurance will be obtained before the end of the relevant period.
0.061
Relative Brier Score
38
Forecasts
3
Upvotes
Forecasting Calendar
Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Forecasts | 0 | 22 | 193 | 38 | 556 |
Comments | 0 | 3 | 25 | 6 | 63 |
Questions Forecasted | 0 | 18 | 48 | 19 | 115 |
Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 31 | 3 | 64 |
 Definitions |
Starting low, as the regime appears to be stable despite protest activity over the past few years.
Not for the first time I'm concerned how low the consensus is. 3% seems a little low for an 84 year old man. Nevertheless there have been repeated health scares over the past several years none of which have proven to amount to anything.
Tightening forecast due to passage of time.
The EU Law will not come into force until after passed at the legislative session in May and then passed to the Standardisation Organisations, which means not until after 1 June 2024. Given it includes a time period for coming into force, it seems highly unlikely that companies would announce their plans BEFORE they knew what the technical contents of the Act will be rather than during the 6 month period they have to come into compliance with it.
Further tightening forecasts in light of the passage of time and the clear focus of Houthi tactics upon shipping (which given partial success is likely to continue).
Adjusting for passage of time and the apparent continuity of the trend.
Why do you think you're right?
Hassan Nasrallah has already taken the reputational hit of not attacking Israel. It is unlikely Hezbollah will change this stance. Given the high readiness of Israel it is unlikely that Hezbollah will expect such an attack will go well.
Why might you be wrong?
There is always an escalation risk. Hezbollah could be pressured by its supporters or sponsors to adopt a more aggressive pose (though history has shown Iran's influence on Hezbollah is actually quite limited).
Why do you think you're right?
Iran is an active antagonist towards the West at present through both its supply of drones to Russia and its support for Hamas. The US and Israel have used cyber attacks as a sub-threshold means of damaging Iranian interests previously (see e.g. Stuxnet). They have already suffered from cyber attacks against CNI this year from both non-state and (highly likely) state actors. It is almost certain they will suffer from a another attack over the coming year.
Why might you be wrong?
It is possible that the geopolitical climate calms down (not likely) or that Iran has sufficiently hardened itself as a target that the condition will not trigger (all but impossible, given the breadth of the question).
There is a base lack of inclination to do this on the part of the junta for obvious reasons, and the ongoing activity on the north provides them with plenty of an excuse to do so. There are other nations they can point to - such as Ukraine - which will be postponing elections due to military conflict. Without concerted international pressure (also lacking) it is highly unlikely elections will take place.