INFER Public

Before 1 January 2025, will Iran announce that it will leave the JCPOA ("Iran nuclear deal")?

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(9 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 18, 2024 10:53AM UTC
(1 month ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	3%	5%	-2%	+0%
No	97%	95%	+2%	+0%

Before 1 June 2024, will Facebook, WhatsApp, Messenger, or Twitter announce that they are labeling posts as potentially written by AI?

Forecast Count:
9 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 18, 2024 12:25PM UTC
(1 month ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	3%	15%	-12%	-3%
No	97%	85%	+12%	+3%

Will Ali Khamenei flee Iran or cease to be Supreme Leader in the next year?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(12 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 19, 2024 02:07PM UTC
(1 month ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	5%	Mar 19, 2024 to Mar 19, 2025	Jun 19, 2024	10%	-5%	+7%
No	95%	Mar 19, 2024 to Mar 19, 2025	Jun 19, 2024	90%	+5%	-7%

Will Myanmar hold national elections before 1 July 2025?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 19, 2024 02:14PM UTC
(1 month ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	10%	5%	+5%	-3%
No	90%	95%	-5%	+3%

Will any of the following countries recognize Israel’s statehood by 31 December 2024?

Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(9 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 31, 2024 02:01PM UTC
(19 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Kuwait	1%	2%	-1%	+0%
Oman	2%	2%	+0%	+0%
Qatar	1%	2%	-1%	+0%
Saudi Arabia	2%	5%	-3%	+0%
Tunisia	1%	1%	+0%	+0%

Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 May 2024?

Forecast Count:
9 Forecasts

Question Ends:
May 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(11 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 31, 2024 02:01PM UTC
(19 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	2%	1%	+1%	-1%

By 31 December 2024, will uranium enriched to 90% or more be discovered in an Iranian facility, according to the IAEA?

Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(9 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 31, 2024 02:01PM UTC
(19 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	3%	4%	-1%	+0%
No	97%	96%	+1%	+0%

Will Iran agree to limit uranium enrichment to 5% or less in the next 6 months?

Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(9 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 31, 2024 02:01PM UTC
(19 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	Mar 31, 2024 to Sep 30, 2024	Jun 30, 2024	0%	+0%	+0%

Will Australia issue a Level 3 or Level 4 travel advisory for Taiwan before 1 July 2024?

Forecast Count:
9 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 31, 2024 02:02PM UTC
(19 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	1%	1%	+0%	+0%
No	99%	99%	+0%	+0%

Will Dina Boluarte cease to be president of Peru through an irregular transition before 1 May 2024?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
May 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(11 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 31, 2024 02:08PM UTC
(19 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	2%	0%	+2%	+0%

Hobbes

About: