Hobbes

Increasing hostilities would seem to make this more likely.

It would seem highly likely that this would happen as part of the conflict with Iran.

The drone attack on Israel appear to make this all but certain.

The current escalation of hostilities would appear to make this substantially more likely.

Well...

Adjusting down in light of the clarification received by @michal_dubrawski . My previous rationale still holds as to why this is more likely than not.

Time for a dramatic adjustment on this. 

It would appear that the rerouting from Suez started in December [1] has now become a fact of life. It doesn't look like the Houthis will be afforded the opportunity to trigger the condition.

[1] https://www.supplychainbrain.com/articles/38625-israeli-linked-vessels-seeking-new-routes-following-houthi-attacks#:~:text=According%20to%20Judah%20Levine%2C%20the,the%20Cape%20of%20Good%20Hope.

Adjustment for passage of time. As the deadline draws nearer the probability of exceeding 499 drops correspondingly.