Passage of time.
0.545144
Relative Brier Score
224
Forecasts
18
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 6 | 27 | 211 | 65 | 583 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 18 | 6 | 63 |
| Questions Forecasted | 6 | 19 | 53 | 25 | 120 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 2 | 28 | 5 | 66 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(-2%)
Yes
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(-8%)
Yes
98%
(+8%)
No
Decreasing; the escalation of the confluct makes this less likely, even if still technically possible.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
5%
(0%)
Yes
Apr 24, 2024 to Apr 24, 2025
95%
(0%)
No
Apr 24, 2024 to Apr 24, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
(0%)
Yes
97%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
(0%)
Yes
97%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
12%
(+5%)
Yes
88%
(-5%)
No
Increasing hostilities would seem to make this more likely.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
75%
(+60%)
Yes
Apr 14, 2024 to Apr 14, 2025
25%
(-60%)
No
Apr 14, 2024 to Apr 14, 2025
It would seem highly likely that this would happen as part of the conflict with Iran.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
98%
(+96%)
Yes
Apr 14, 2024 to Apr 14, 2025
2%
(-96%)
No
Apr 14, 2024 to Apr 14, 2025
The drone attack on Israel appear to make this all but certain.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
92%
(+17%)
Yes
8%
(-17%)
No
The current escalation of hostilities would appear to make this substantially more likely.
Files
Passage of time.