Microelectronics Intelligence Briefing Challenge

U.S. Government policymakers need your help understanding whether the U.S. will gain a competitive edge in microelectronics. You are tasked with writing an "intelligence brief" to a U.S. policymaker or an intelligence analyst that evaluates a specific aspect of the future of microelectronics, such as U.S. government investment in capabilities, manufacturing (e.g., fab facilities, sales and production targets), or R&D. The goal is to thoroughly research your focus area and identify the signals you can glean over the last several months from the consensus forecast trends and your own forecasts. Ideally, your brief will cover patterns across a select group of questions within the topic, as well as present arguments for your own forecasts and updated forecasts over time. 

Five judges will score briefs based on a solid contextual understanding of the microelectronics topic, the ability to deduce patterns and signals from the consensus forecasts, your individual forecasts, and your use of forecasting best practices (e.g., use of base rates, etc). Submissions are due by July 31, 2022.

1st place: $2,500

2nd place: $1,500

3rd place: $1,000

Eligibility details:

• There are no guidelines on word count for your analysis brief, but we will be evaluating for concise, clear language and presentation. Briefs should not exceed 6-10 pages in easily readable font size and line spacing.

• Sections for your brief may include the following (these are suggestions and should not be taken as a requirement):

• Executive summary

• Introduction

• Research overview of forecast question

• Discussion/analysis of signals (individual and consensus forecast trends)

• Final thoughts on the future outlook

• If any microelectronics questions resolve during this timeframe, you may choose to analyze how you or the crowd performed. We are judging the brief based on your analysis of the matter, and your accuracy will not impact how we score the brief.