April 29, 2022

1 You're invited...

This event is public, so please share with others who may be interested!

2 What do aluminum, lithography machines, and China's top universities have in common?

A recent blog post explains how these signals fit into INFER's Microelectronics topic, which feeds into our broader focus area of U.S. competitiveness in AI. Tell us what you think will happen with each:

What will be the price per ton of aluminum on 1 July 2022? Currently, there is a 54% chance price will be between $3,000-$3,500.

Why this matters: Aluminum is used to create a number of different semiconductor components.

Make a forecast

What percentage of ASML's lithography sales will be to the U.S. in 2022? Currently, there is a 53% chance sales will be 5%-10%.

Why this matters: Lithography machines are required in the most advanced semiconductor fabrication processes (ASML is the only company in the world capable of making this equipment).

Make a forecast

How many of China's universities will be listed in QS World University Rankings' top 100 for computer science? Currently, there is a 91% chance 6-7 universities will be listed.

Why this matters: China's top universities play a critical role in developing the country's AI talent capability and competitiveness.

Make a forecast

3 Outstanding forecaster spotlights

Top of the leaderboard
Congratulations to @MullenAustin for holding the current #1 spot on the leaderboard with 15 scored questions!

Most upvotes received
Congratulations to @RyanBeck, @DKC, and @cafebedouin for reaching 200+ upvotes! Your fellow forecasters like what you have to say.

4 Tomorrow is the last day to qualify for the Badge of Honor!

Haven't forecasted yet this month? You have until tomorrow, April 30th, to make a forecast and stay in the running for the Badge of Honor. Earn this badge and be entered for a portion of $1,500. You must be an active forecaster in April, May, and June.

See eligibility details and learn about other active reward challenges.

5 Pro Forecaster exclusive with U.S. Department of State

On Tuesday, Pro Forecasters had a live event with the State Department's Bureau of Conflict and Stabilization Operations (CSO). The Director of the Office of Advanced Analytics discussed how forecasting results generated by Pros and all INFER forecasters were being used within their office. It was great to hear that our forecasts are making a difference!

6 Effective Altruism students hone forecasting skills in first INFER tournament

INFER has launched its first tournament for effective altruism (EA) university student groups. More than 100 students at top universities around the world, including Stanford, Yale, Cambridge, UChicago, and Delhi University, are learning forecasting techniques and putting skills into practice in an attempt to be more accurate in predicting the future. Learn more about the tournament in our latest blog post. Remember: All teams must be active in April to stay in the tournament!

Do you have friends or colleagues interested in joining INFER?
They can sign up here. For any questions, drop us a line.

Thank you for reading!
The INFER Public Team

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INFER is a forecasting program run by the Applied Research Laboratory for Intelligence and Security (ARLIS) at the University of Maryland and Cultivate Labs. Funding is provided by Open Philanthropy.