June 28, 2022


Policymakers want YOUR forecasts on which countries will lead the AI race

As we wrap up the month of June, INFER is preparing a report for policymakers on our latest topic of focus: the Global AI Race. Inspired by governments around the world ramping up efforts in the AI sphere, questions in this topic aim to answer: Which countries will lead AI developments in research, technology, and human capital in the coming decade? So far, this community has generated 350+ forecasts on the topic. We need your help to continue to keep those forecasts up-to-date. Tell us what you think on the new questions below:
How many AI-related patents will be published in the U.S. in 2022?
INFER predicts a 45% chance that the U.S. will publish 15,000-18,000 patents in 2022, nearly double the 8,890 patents published in 2021.
Make a forecast
How many AI scientific publications will be published by EU institutions in 2022?
INFER predicts an 84% chance that the E.U. will publish more than 3,000 publications, similar to the 3,044 published in 2021.
Make a forecast
How many AI-related patents will be published in China in 2022?
INFER predicts an 85% chance that China will publish 1,400 or more patents, an increase from the 1,025 published in 2021.
Make a forecast


Coming soon to INFER

+ Forecasting policy implications of Synthetic Biology
U.S. policymakers have asked INFER to launch a new strategic topic to generate forecasts about the future of Synthetic Biology. New questions in this field will be released later next month, as well as educational material for forecasters.

We have budget to sponsor clubs or other groups with an emphasis on synthetic biology. If you are part of one or would like to introduce us, please send an email to [email protected]. We also have a few Pro Forecaster spots reserved for anyone who can demonstrate experience in this field. 

+ July Fireside Chat covering national strategies in AI 
Do you hear a fire crackling? Our next Fireside Chat will focus on the global AI race and how different countries are approaching efforts to lead in AI. Our speaker and date will be announced in early July. If you missed our last one, watch it here


Forecaster special shoutouts

+ Club 35
Congratulations to our "35" Club, all of whom have forecasted in at least 35 scored questions: @cassandra, @MullenAustin, @btv, @ansantillan, @JJMLP, and @Ian! (Want to join this exclusive club? Why not make a few forecasts here...)
+ Crowd whisperer
With 416 upvotes, @DKC has been our most popular commenter throughout the first half of this season! 


Did someone say rewards?

+ Pro Forecaster Starter Award
Forecasters in the top 20% of the leaderboard at the halfway point of the 2022 season (July 31st) will earn the Pro Forecaster Starter Award, highlighting you as a potential paid Pro Forecaster in the future. The top five forecasters will earn up to $1,000. Learn more.
+ Badge of Honor Challenge
If you've forecasted in April and May, forecast in June to receive the Badge of Honor for forecasting in all three months. For every question you forecast, you will be entered into a drawing to win $500! Learn more.
Hint: Follow @INFERpub on Twitter this week! We'll be announcing our first #FlashCastThursday.


On draft at The Pub

Over on our blog, The Pub, we've launched new posts and blog series. Here are our current staff picks:
+ Topic Brief: Microelectronics 101
In our first "Topic Brief," we go into the basics of microelectronics and provide some resources to help you forecast within the Microelectronics Technologies topic.
+ New question releases 
We've had a lot of new questions released in the last month on the topic, Global AI Race. See this post highlighting questions about AI publications, and this post where we spotlight questions about AI patents in the U.S. and China.
Check out more posts


Tweet your forecasts, compare how you're doing, and more new features!

INFER rolled out a slew of new features this month, which you can learn more about in the Release Notes. Here are a couple of them:
+ Share to your Twitter feed
Below each forecast question, you'll see an option to share to Twitter before you hit "submit" on your forecast. Now, your followers can stay in the loop on what you're forecasting on INFER.
+ Tell us why you might be wrong
INFER launched an optional "pre-mortem" comment box within the forecasting interface that asks you why you might be wrong. Doing so may moderate more extreme forecasts and provide the community with new insight. 
+ Compare yourself to the best forecasters
Under My Profile, new performance charts show you how you're doing compared to various percentiles (top 25% etc). View yours here.


Last call for forecasts on questions ending soon

A handful of questions are ending this week. Make sure you submit a forecast. It might even help your score! (*EA Tournament qualifying questions)

In the next six months, will U.S. and China announce the establishment of an ongoing bilateral dialog mechanism that includes discussions of emerging technologies?

On 30 June 2022, how much funding will Crunchbase’s “Hub for Artificial Intelligence Companies Founded in the Last Year” report that those companies have raised?

By 30 June 2022, will a date be announced for a Mobileye IPO?*

How much revenue will Intel report for the second quarter of 2022?*

Will Tether (USDT) trade below $0.95 at any time before 1 July 2022?*

How many autonomous vehicle collisions will the California DMV record for June 2022?*
Do you have friends or colleagues interested in joining INFER?
They can sign up here. For any questions, drop us a line.

Thank you for reading!
The INFER Public Team
Copyright © 2022
INFER is a forecasting program run by the Applied Research Laboratory for Intelligence and Security (ARLIS) at the University of Maryland and Cultivate Labs. Funding is provided by Open Philanthropy
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