May 30, 2022


The heated race for AI dominance

Governments around the world are rapidly stepping up efforts to gain dominance and unlock AI’s disruptive potential. INFER recently launched a new forecasting topic, International Competitiveness in AI. It includes questions that we identified as directional signals for assessing the broader, strategic question: Which countries will lead AI developments in research, technology, and human capital in the coming decade? We will launch more questions within this topic area in the following weeks. See the announcement of this topic here, and submit your own forecasts below:
How many EU countries will have an AI skill migration greater than 2 per 100,000 in 2022?
INFER predicts a 54% chance that 6-7 countries will achieve this rate.
Make a forecast
In 2022, will a Chinese institution have the most AI research publications ranked in the top 10%?
INFER predicts an 81% chance this will occur.
Make a forecast
Which country or union will publish the second most AI related patents in 2022?
INFER predicts a 63% chance it will be the European Union.
Make a forecast


Forecaster special shoutouts

Uttering the prophesies
Congratulations to @cassandra for being the current leader in the 2022 season! (We had several questions resolve this month, so check out how you rank...)
Top forecaster and commenter
With 121 forecasts and 116 comments in May, @sebawi was our most prolific forecaster and commenter! 


Be on the lookout for #FlashCastThursdays

INFER has released a new forecasting challenge. On randomly selected Thursdays, we will run a "FlashCast Thursday," which will be announced on Twitter the day prior. If you make a forecast during the day of a FlashCast Thursday, you'll be entered into a reward drawing worth up to $500! Learn more.
Follow @INFERpub on Twitter so you know about #FlashcastThursday!


On draft at The Pub

Over on our blog, The Pub, we've launched new posts and blog series. Here are our current staff picks:
By the numbers: INFER forecasts increase and "time" is most popular word in April
In the first "By the Numbers," we explore the number of forecasts, how accurate forecasters were, and other activity highlights from the month. 
Dear Fern: I'm not an expert
In a brand new series, forecasting ally Fern is here to answer your questions about being the best forecaster you can be. This month: "Can I forecast on a topic where I'm not an expert?"
Check out more posts


A crackling new Fireside Chat series begins

Earlier this month, we hosted our first Fireside Chat, Reasserting U.S. Leadership in Microelectronics, featuring MIT professor and a leading researcher in electrical engineering, Jesus A. del Alamo. You can catch the recording at this link.


Profile page update and other releases

Did you notice the profile page got a makeover this month? You can now keep track of all the latest platform releases from Updates in the top nav. 
Do you have friends or colleagues interested in joining INFER?
They can sign up here. For any questions, drop us a line.

Thank you for reading!
The INFER Public Team
Copyright © 2022
INFER is a forecasting program run by the Applied Research Laboratory for Intelligence and Security (ARLIS) at the University of Maryland and Cultivate Labs. Funding is provided by Open Philanthropy
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