September 22, 2022


Synthetic biology at the pump

Synthetic biology has the potential to transform global dependence on fossil fuels. It allows for the production of alternative fuels derived from living matter (referred to as “biofuels”). The R&D is still at an early stage, but when may we see mass production and adoption of biofuels, if ever? INFER’s new Synthetic Biology in the Energy Sector topic includes several questions that help signal the pace of broad consumer demand and adoption. We want to know what you think:
On 28 February 2023, how many states will be following the California emissions standard banning the sale of new emissions-producing vehicles by 2035?
What do you think?
What percentage of the U.S.’s renewable energy consumption will come from biofuels in 2023?
What do you think?


Sep. 29 Fireside Chat explores the race for AI dominance

What does winning the global artificial intelligence race mean, and which countries are currently in the lead? Join us to hear from ASU Professor and Brookings contributor, Gregory Dawson, who will be interviewed by ARLIS Professor of Practice and former Deputy Director for National Intelligence, Beth Sanner. They will discuss how different countries are approaching their national AI strategies and what policymakers should care about so that the U.S. remains on the cutting-edge of AI.
Register here!


Test your forecasting abilities with these new challenges!

+ Triple Hit Challenge
In our newest challenge, try to collect your monthly forecasting activity badges for September, October, and November! Earn all 3 badges to be entered into a drawing to win $500. 
+ Rookie Fast-Track Challenge
If you join INFER in September, October, or November, and you make a forecast within 30 days of joining, you will be entered for a reward drawing. The more forecasts you make in your first month, the more entries you get in the drawing!
See all reward challenges


INFER launches forecaster training program starting with pilot course

Earlier this month, several of our Pros and a few other forecasters received in-depth training from on Open Source research methods! This is part of a broader training curriculum INFER has worked with to define. Want a sneak peek at what they’re doing and what is coming in the next few months for all forecasters? Learn more.


In case you missed it...

What is INFER, and how is this valuable for policymakers? Watch our 5-minute explainer video here.

+ Fireside Chat: The Advent of the "Synthetic Age"... Hear from our guest speakers about how synthetic biology will impact our world and what policymakers should know. Watch it here.

+ New blog post explores the current landscape of synthetic biology... See this Topic Brief filled with resources to help you make your forecasts within our latest topic, Synthetic Biology in the Energy Sector.

+ What is the state of artificial intelligence in the world, and what’s coming next? Pro Forecasters had an exclusive meetup with INFER's AI subject matter expert to discuss the next generation of AI, and you can watch the discussion here!

+ Interested in the analysis we do based on your forecasts? Check out our new Reports Page, where you can download and subscribe to our quarterly reports and periodic alerts.
Do you have friends or colleagues interested in joining INFER?
They can sign up here. For any questions, drop us a line.

Thank you for reading!
The INFER Team
Copyright © 2022
INFER is a forecasting program run by the Applied Research Laboratory for Intelligence and Security (ARLIS) at the University of Maryland and Cultivate Labs. Funding is provided by Open Philanthropy

Tip: Mention someone by typing @username