Outcome Measure
Transactions
Transactions
metric:
How will the combined annual dollar amount of DoD contracts with the "Big 5" tech companies change over the next three years?
Stakeholder-crowd comparison:
- Stakeholders views. Average forecast of $1.6 billion by the second quarter of 2024, with a large, positive correlation (0.7) with overall expectations for the relationship. The improve cohort’s average forecast ($1.9 billion in 2024 Q2) is higher than the same/worse cohort’s average forecast ($1.4 billion in 2024 Q2). The difference between the cohorts’ forecasts is statistically significant.
- Crowd's view. The crowd’s forecast is closer to the same/worse cohort. The crowd expects the annual contract dollar value to increase to $1.4 billion by the second quarter of 2024. The crowd’s lower forecast indicates an expectation of fewer transactions, relative to the stakeholders. According to the stakeholder interviews, this has negative implications for the DOD-Silicon Valley relationship.
Transactions
metric:
How will the percentage of DoD subcontracts for scientific research and development services going to Northern-California-based companies change over the next three years?
Stakeholder-crowd comparison:
- Stakeholders' views. Average forecast of 5 percent by the second quarter of 2024, with no correlation between forecasts and overall expectations for the relationship.
- Crowd's view. The crowd agrees with the stakeholders and does not expect significant changes, forecasting that the percentage will continue to hover just over 5 percent.
Transactions
Metric:
How will the number of Defense Innovation Unit transitions change over the next three years?
Stakeholder-crowd comparison:
- Stakeholders views. Average forecast of 14.8 in 2023, with a positive correlation (0.4) between forecasts and overall expectations for the relationship. The improve cohort’s average forecast (15 in 2023) is slightly higher than the same/worse cohort’s average forecast (14.7 in 2023).
- Crowd's view. The crowd’s forecast is higher than both stakeholder cohorts. The crowd expects DIU transitions to increase from 11 in 2020 to 20.5 in 2023. The crowd’s higher forecast indicates an expectation of more transactions, relative to the stakeholders. According to the stakeholder interviews, this has positive implications for the DOD-Silicon Valley relationship.
More information on stakeholder and crowd forecasts forthcoming.