Will events involving Russian security forces result in 25 or more fatalities occurring in Georgia or Moldova before 1 April 2023?

Started Mar 24, 2022 04:00PM UTC
Closed Apr 01, 2023 03:59AM UTC

This question will be resolved using reputable open-source news media reports.  

For the purposes of this question: 
  • “Events involving Russian security forces” refers to events directly and plausibly attributable to forces that fall under the Security Council of Russia
  • “Events resulting in 25 or more fatalities” refers to one or more events totaling 25 or more fatalities in each country by 1 April 2023. If there are events in both countries that lead to over 25 fatalities in total, but there are fewer than 25 fatalities in each country by 1 April 2023, this question will resolve as “No, neither country.” 
  • The fatalities must occur on the soil, airspace, or territorial waters of Georgia or Moldova. An airstrike or remote attack launched from outside these countries will count if it results in fatalities within Georgia or Moldova. 
  • For the purposes of this question, events in unrecognized breakaway states would be considered as occurring in the larger, internationally recognized country (e.g., an event that occurs in Transnistria would count as occurring in Moldova). 
  • An example of an event that would meet this criteria is the Russo-Georgian War of 2008 (Reuters, Wikipedia).
Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes, 25+ in Georgia, but not in Moldova 0%
Yes, 25+ in Moldova, but not in Georgia 1%
Yes, 25+ in Georgia and 25+ in Moldova 0%
No, 25+ in neither Georgia nor Moldova 98%

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