What will be the price per ton of aluminum on 1 June 2022?

Started Mar 31, 2022 04:00PM UTC
Closed Jun 01, 2022 03:59AM UTC

An aluminum shortage has seen the price of aluminum rise to historically high levels in recent months. Sanctions on Russia, the 3rd largest supplier of aluminum, may worsen the shortage and cause prices to rise even higher. This question will be resolved using the “close” price of aluminum on June 1, 2022, as reported by Markets Insider.  

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    Question clarification
    Issued on 04/04/22 02:00pm
    A previous version of the background information mistakenly said that it will resolve using the closing price of aluminum on July 1st instead of June 1st. The background information has been corrected to this effect.
    Resolution Notes

    Closing price of 2,726.15 on June 1 according to https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/aluminum-price

    Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
    Less than $3000 85%
    More than or equal to $3000 but less than $3500 13%
    More than or equal to $3500 but less than $4000 1%
    More than or equal to $4000 0%

    Crowd Forecast Profile

    Participation Level
    Number of Forecasters 88
    Average for questions older than 6 months: 58
    Number of Forecasts 310
    Average for questions older than 6 months: 204
    Accuracy
    Participants in this question vs. all forecasters better than average

    Most Accurate

    Relative Brier Score

    1.
    -0.231
    2.
    -0.177
    3.
    -0.165
    4.
    -0.147
    5.
    -0.138

    Consensus Trend

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